Female Candidates Line Up for 2010

Monday 23 February 2009

»

by: Josh Kraushaar, The Politico

Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is running for the Senate seat to be vacated by retiring Sen. George Voinovich. (Photo: Getty)

A slew of formidable female candidates, mostly Democrats, are lining up to run for the Senate in 2010, enough to raise the prospect of a surge of women into a chamber that currently has just 17 women senators.

Even at this early point in the election cycle, two prominent statewide female officeholders have announced their campaigns in key battleground states and at least 10 other experienced female candidates - ranging from state officials to former CEOs to members of Congress - are considering bids for the Senate.

"This is really unprecedented for leading female candidates jumping in," said Karen O'Connor, director of the Women and Politics Institute at American University.

"It really is a landmark year because there's a farm team now," O'Connor said. "Now you have mayors, congresswomen, secretaries of state; they're waiting in the wings, and they're not going to sit back any longer."

In Missouri, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has already received the blessing of the Democratic establishment and is not expected to face serious primary opposition in the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Kit Bond.

Carnahan, who hails from one of Missouri's most famous political families, won over 1.74 million votes in her secretary of state race last year, the most votes for any office in state history. She could end up facing former GOP state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who is planning to challenge Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) for the Republican nomination.

In Ohio, where Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is running to succeed retiring Sen. George Voinovich, a victory would make her the state's first female senator.

The unusually high number of Senate special elections, open seats and potentially vulnerable incumbents is playing a role in attracting the interest of female talent.

In two states where governors have passed over them as possible appointees to vacant seats, veteran members of Congress are mulling over special election primary challenges.

Two downstate congresswomen, Reps. Carolyn McCarthy and Carolyn Maloney, are considering primary bids against New York Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, who was recently appointed to fill former Sen. Hillary Clinton's seat. Likewise, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) has been exploring the possibility of challenging appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.).

Vulnerable incumbents have attracted the attention of Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.), a prospective challenger to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), and state auditor Crit Luallen, a Democrat who is considering taking on Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.).

The Senate seat left open by the retirement of Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) has Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio, a Democrat, deciding whether to throw her hat in the ring, while former Hewlett-Packard CEO and McCain economic adviser Carly Fiorina has been touted as a possible challenger to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.).

O'Connor explains that female candidates have a better track record in elections where economic issues are at the forefront, which makes the current political environment especially alluring. In the post-Sept. 11 climate, she said, women were vulnerable to perceptions that they weren't as tough on dealing with terrorist threats.

In 1992, the last banner year for female congressional candidates, economic issues likewise trumped foreign policy.

"When kitchen-table issues are at the forefront, voters recognize it's women in so many households across America that deal with these issues. That will resonate with a certain segment of voters," said EMILY's List political director Jonathan Parker.

In addition, the bench of female downballot officials has grown over the past two decades, creating a larger pool of top-tier Senate candidates. EMILY's List has been running a Political Opportunity Program for the past four elections, training female Democratic candidates how to run professional campaigns for local offices.

The strong early interest by more than a dozen tested or well-known female candidates stands in sharp contrast to the past two elections. Only 13 female candidates ran for the Senate in 2008 - a 16-year low - and most of them were long-shot campaigns without serious organizations. Just two challengers were successful: North Carolina's Kay Hagan and New Hampshire's Jeanne Shaheen, both Democrats. Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) lost in a Republican primary.

Those results mirrored the 2006 elections, when Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) knocked off incumbents.

Martha McKenna, who is responsible for recruitment as political director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the committee will always look to identify the strongest candidate regardless of gender but that this year, that candidate has frequently been a woman.

"It's becoming more and more common for the strongest candidate to be a woman, and that's a good thing for the party and the country," McKenna said. "We look at these five open seats, and you can't help but look at Missouri and see the strongest candidate is Robin Carnahan. You look at Kansas, and you see [Gov. Kathleen] Sebelius is the strongest candidate."

In Ohio, Brunner is hoping to capitalize on strong support from female voters as she prepares for a tough primary against Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who is backed by popular Gov. Ted Strickland. In the state's Democratic presidential primary last year, women made up 59 percent of the electorate, according to NBC News exit polling.

Brunner is expected to receive the EMILY's List endorsement, which worked with her in her last campaign for secretary of state. The group provides female Democratic candidates with an extensive network of national donors to raise money - and should help her remain financially competitive in the primary against Fisher.

"With Hillary Clinton winning as decisively as she did in Ohio, that was because of the influence of women voters," said Brunner. "What I've been finding around the state is that women appear to be really enthusiastic about having a female senator in Ohio, while some men have been more cautious about my campaign."