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In trying to determine if Edwards supporters will break more for Clinton or Obama, there are two main factors to consider: momentum and demographics.
First, which candidate currently has the momentum in the campaign? When a candidate drops out of a campaign, his or her supporters tend to break for the candidate with the most momentum at that time. In this case, that appears to be Obama, given that he has gained on Clinton for five consecutive days in the Gallup national tracking poll. While the Rasmussen national tracking poll appears static, and while information from state polls is spotty and incomplete, the past few days have seemed to favor Obama (at least before Florida). Overall, from the perspective of the Obama campaign, this was probably a pretty good time for Edwards to drop out.
Then again, looking the information from the five exit polls (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida) Obama might have needed Edwards to stay close on February 5th. Edwards performed well among whites and voters aged 40-65, both of which are demographics that favor Clinton. If there is hope in the demographics for the Obama campaign, it will come from men, and independents, among whom Edwards also performed well. While another strong demographic for Edwards has been self-identified conservatives, there is conflicting information on who that favors. There is also conflicting information on the attendance of religious services among Edwards supporters.
Combine, these two factors, and it is difficult to say for certain where Edwards supporters will turn nationwide. My instincts tell me that Obama faces a much more difficult campaign now, since he could have pointed to the combined totals of his delegates and Edwards delegates as a means of staying in the campaign longer. Starting tomorrow, polling will offer some clues on where Edwards supporters are breaking, and over the weekend there will be polls completed entirely without Edwards. The bottom line is that if Clinton receives the majority of Edwards supporters, this campaign is probably over. If Obama receives the majority of Edwards supporters, then perhaps Edwards leaving the campaign will prove quite timely for his campaign.
Tagged as: edwards, obama, clinton, democrats
Chris Bowers was a full-time editor at MyDD from May 2004 until June 2007. Some of his projects have included the creation of the Liberal Blog Advertising Network, the first scientifically random poll of progressive netroots activists, the Use It Or Lose It campaign, the nation's most accurate forecast of Democratic house pickups in 2006, and the 2006 Googlebomb the Elections campaign.
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