Reports on an extramarital affair have not damaged Senator McCain’s media image so far. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch shows that the tone of coverage is still more positive than negative. The analysis includes data from Thursday night’s network news. “The frontrunner is under scrutiny now,” says Roland Schatz, President of Media Tenor International. “That’s not unusual – and it’s a challenge for his communication.”
In the past, failing communication management turned out to be more harmful to a contender’s ambitions than the incident itself. The affair was mentioned on TV, but the tone was only moderately critical. The data shows positive and negative remarks about McCain’s crisis management. Positive horse race remarks were not elbowed aside by this discussion. “Analysis of this week’s and last week’s coverage shows that McCain’s media image is even better than Obama’s, when personal or leadership issues are mentioned,” Schatz says.
On the Democratic side, poll results indicate that Obama has currently lost his narrow lead. Gallup’s national tracking poll pointed out a small lead for Clinton on Thursday. “Media Tenor’s research had anticipated this trend already at the end of last week,” Schatz explains. In previous elections trend research has repeatedly shown that public opinion follows TV coverage. Especially voters with no clear preference and little political interest tend to be influenced by the media. “But at the end of this week the TV trend changed back towards Obama,” Schatz noticed. Skeptical expectations about Clinton’s need to succeed in Texas and Ohio have led to this result. At the moment, Obama takes advantage of positive horse race statements – but is not as strong on other issues. Schatz added, “That might turn out to be problem, when – sooner or later – Obama will come under scrutiny.”
McCain’s media image not damaged so far
Reports on an extramarital affair have not damaged Senator McCain’s media image so far. Current analysis shows that the tone of coverage is still more positive than negative. The analysis includes data from Thursday night’s network news.
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 1/1 – 2/21/2008: tone of coverage by weeks
Basis: All statements by / or on McCain and Huckabee on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 1/1 – 2/21/2008 (* low database)
Balanced rating of McCain’s crisis management
The affair was mentioned on TV, but the tone was only moderately critical. The data show positive and negative remarks about McCain’s crisis management. Positive horse race remarks were not elbowed aside by this discussion.
ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX news coverage of McCain, 2/18 – 2/21/2008: tone of coverage
Basis: all statements by or on McCain and Huckabee on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 2/4 – 2/21/2008 (* low database)
Two weeks analysis: McCain vs. Obama
Analysis of this week’s and last week’s coverage shows that McCain’s media image is even better than Obama’s when personal or leadership issues are mentioned. At the moment, Obama has advantage in positive horse race statements only.
ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX news candidate coverage, 2/11 – 2/21/2008: tone of coverage by topics
Basis: all statements by or on McCain and Obama on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 2/11 – 2/21/2008 (* low database)
No comeback for Clinton in TV coverage
One out of five statements by or on Obama was positive this week. On the other hand, Clinton could not make a comeback in TV coverage. Skeptical statements on expectations of Clinton’s needed success in Texas and Ohio have led to this result.
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 1/1 – 2/21/2008*: tone of coverage by weeks
Basis: all statements by or on Clinton and Obama on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 1/1 – 2/21/2008 (*individual newscasts missing)
Polls follow TV, but trend moves back to Obama
Media Tenor’s “Complementary Trend” compares TV coverage of Obama and Clinton: who was rated better. At the end of this week Gallup data shows that public opinion has followed the TV trend towards Clinton. But this trend has now changed again.
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 1/25 – 2/21/2008: tone of coverage by days
Basis: all statements by or on Obama and Clinton on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 1/25 – 2/21/2008
To read the full Media Tenor election report in PDF format click here.
For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns but also for International politics as well,” Schatz explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on Candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding on an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.
For further information visit: MediaTenor.com
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