t r u t h o u t | Report
Wednesday 06 February 2008
Despite estimates by many media organizations that show Sen. Hillary Clinton winning more delegates on Super Tuesday, the reality is that it was essentially a tie. The Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters this morning and they said they estimate that no side will win the delegate count from Tuesday by more than five to ten delegates. They are estimating that they are now up one delegate, with counting still going on in California and New Mexico.
They stressed that this race could come down to the super delegates, where they currently have a significant lead. Marc Penn, Clinton's pollster and top advisor, said that the race is down to delegates and they have an advantage among super delegates.
The Obama campaign is also claiming to be ahead in the duper delegate count: "By winning a majority of delegates and a majority of the states, Barack Obama won an important Super Tuesday victory over Senator Clinton in the closest thing we have to a national primary," said campaign manager David Plouffe.
The reality is that the media and the campaigns are making estimates, but nobody really knows the full count. There were five caucus states yesterday; they did not pick any delegates for the Democratic National Convention. Obama won them handily and will end up with more delegates than Clinton in those states, but we will not know the real breakdown in those states for months.
MSNBC and CNN are including unpledged - or what is commonly referred to as super delegates - in their counts. The problem with this is the super delegates can change their minds at any time.
Super delegates are party leaders who are not bound by any of the voting and can vote for whoever they want. For example: if Barack Obama goes on a roll and has more pledged delegates than Hillary Clinton, many super delegates who previously expressed support for Clinton will switch to Obama. There are close to 800 super delegates and over 400 of them have not expressed an opinion.
Who Are the Super Delegates?
Every Democratic member of Congress, all Democratic governors, former presidents and vice presidents, and Democratic National Committee members are super delegates. The Democratic National Committee appoints some as well. Super delegates were created as a firewall to stop a candidate that the party leaders think is outside the mainstream. The McGovern nomination in 1972 served as the catalyst for the creation of super delegates.
Pledged delegates must vote for the candidate they are pledged to in the first round. They are selected in proportion to the vote in the primaries and caucuses. Obama will come out of Tuesday with a narrow advantage in pledged delegates.
Both campaigns continue to spin the numbers after each contest. In states where there are primaries, the numbers are pretty accurate after all the counting is done. In caucus states however, they are guessing. For example: In Iowa John Edwards was estimated to have earned 14 delegates. His supporters at the county convention can now choose whomever they want. He will likely not come close to getting 14 delegates when it is all said and done. The Obama and Clinton supporters can change their mind at any time as well, so real delegate totals will not be known until June.
The situation is the same in Nevada. In 1992 Jerry Brown beat Bill Clinton by double digits on caucus day, but Clinton ended up with more delegates in the end.
The bad news for Obama is that several of his victories on Super Tuesday were in caucus states, so there are two more steps in the process before we will know what the delegate count will be. The silver lining for him is that he won by such large margins that it is likely he will hold onto his advantage throughout the selection process.
The bottom line is delegate counts that include super delegates and caucuses should be taken with a grain of salt.
The Week Ahead
This Saturday voters in Louisiana go the polls, while voters in Washington State, Nebraska, and the US Virgin Islands will caucus.
On Sunday there will be a caucus in Maine.
Next Tuesday in what is being billed as the Chesapeake Primary; Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia go to the polls.
On the conference call with the press this morning, the Clinton campaign indicated that they are focusing on Louisiana and Virginia. They will be sending surrogates to other states, but don't expect to see Hillary Clinton in any of the caucus states. They also acknowledged that the Obama campaign has advantages in many of the races prior to March 4.
Over and over during the call they said that March 4 will be the key, and they think that they will be tough to beat in Ohio and Texas.
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