The Progress Report:

IRAN
Time for Talks Now "In open defiance of the United Nations, Iran is steadily expanding its efforts to enrich uranium," the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found in a report released Thursday. The IAEA revealed that Iran is "now operating or about to switch on roughly 1,000 centrifuges, the high-speed devices that enrich uranium, at its nuclear facility at Natanz." Although the findings are "very serious," the report also "appeared to confirm that the Iranian government was somewhat behind schedule in its nuclear ambitions," leaving the international community with "some time to pursue options before Iran is even capable of building a nuclear bomb." Nevertheless, rhetoric and actions from both the United States and Iran have created an environment in the Persian Gulf comparable to the security situation at "the height of the Cold War." "In a hazy, hair-triggered environment, careless rhetoric and military movements…can be misinterpreted as preparations for military options," Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) warned in a speech last week. "The risk of inadvertent conflict because of miscalculation is great." In response to the IAEA's findings, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has reiterated the administration's opposition to direct talks with Iran unless the country suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities. But as the Iranians press ahead on their quest for nuclear technology and regional tensions rise, the time for tough diplomacy is now.

IAEA REPORT SHOWS THERE IS STILL TIME: The IAEA report came as a "mild surprise to outside experts." Its findings highlight "many areas where, in addition to defying the Security Council, Iran has been dragging its feet or refusing to comply with IAEA requests." "For instance," Foreign Policy reports, "Iran has 'declined to agree at this stage' to remote monitoring at the Natanz enrichment plant, a safeguard the IAEA deems crucial." However, the report also "highlights the slow, incremental nature of nuclear technology development." The IAEA report "confirms that the Iranians are moving carefully and slowly; they still probably have fewer than 500 centrifuges running," though they say they have almost finished installing another 300 or so. (If all these centrifuges "were running at full speed it would take about six years to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb.") Iran has long maintained that it will install 3,000 centrifuges by March, a goal it will not meet if it continues at its previous rate." Many nuclear experts believe "the frenetic activity at the desert enrichment plant in Natanz may be mostly about political showmanship." (Eric Hundman of the Center for Defense Information has a more detailed look at other "dim glimmers of hope" in the IAEA report here.)

TIME HAS COME FOR DIPLOMACY: The administration's demand that Iran halt enrichment before direct talks can take place is wasting valuable time. As former Secretary of State Colin Powell put it, "You can't negotiate when you tell the other side, 'Give us what a negotiation would produce before the negotiations start.'" This means offering a country both incentives and disincentives for renouncing nuclear arms. "The Bush administration states it wants to resolve the Iranian nuclear challenge diplomatically," Center for American Progress National Security analyst Andy Grotto writes. "If so, it has to be willing to engage Iran directly." The calls for direct talks have grown louder recently. U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair -- who has criticized the administration for its refusal to talk with Iran -- said last week that it is "important is to pursue the political, diplomatic channel." Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) called for "wise statecraft to redirect deepening Middle East tensions toward a higher ground of resolution."

COOKING UP A 'RECIPE FOR MISCALCULATION': Recent news reports only serve to heighten tensions in the region. The BBC revealed the U.S. military had drawn up "contingency plans for air strikes on Iran" that "extend beyond nuclear sites and include most of the country's military infrastructure." Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh reports that "special planning group has been established in the offices of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, charged with creating a contingency bombing plan for Iran that can be implemented, upon orders from the President, within twenty-four hours." American military and special-operations teams have escalated their activities inside Iran "to gather intelligence and...have also crossed the border in pursuit of Iranian operatives from Iraq." In addition, some in the military think the carriers groups now stationed in the region -- the Eisenhower and the Stennis -- "may be ordered to stay in the area" after new carriers arrive to relieve them. The commanding officer of the Stennis, Captain Bradley Johanson, said the presence of the carrier groups is not part of an "escalatory posture at all with Iran." Yet the worry is that their mere presence could -- as Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) put it -- "accidentally set something off in there." "Britain's most senior naval officer in the Gulf," Commodore Keith Winstanley, told the U.K. Telegraph, "There have been a series of Iranian exercises in the northern Gulf to the point that it's a bit like with the Russians at the height of the Cold War. ... We just have to hope that's not a recipe for miscalculation."