UNDER THE RADAR

ECONOMY -- TARP OVERSIGHT PANEL: TREASURY MAY NOT BE ACKNOWLEDGING THE DOWNTURN'S 'DEPTH': According to new forecasts set to be released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "toxic debts racked up by banks and insurers could spiral to $4 trillion." With that harrowing number hanging overhead, the Troubled Asset Relief Program's Congressional Oversight Panel released its six-month report today. The panel, chaired by Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren, questioned Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's assumption that the toxic assets clogging the banks are merely economically depressed, noting that Treasury's response "fails to acknowledge the depth of the current downturn." "If the economic crisis is deeper than anticipated, it is possible that Treasury will need to take very different actions in order to restore financial stability," wrote the panel. The Warren panel also noted that Treasury "has not explained its assumption that the proper values for these assets are their book values." As estimates regarding the number of toxic assets climb higher and higher -- with Nouriel Roubini claiming there are $3.6 trillion worth -- it is becoming clearer just how much depends on Treasury finding a workable plan for cleaning up the banks. As IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said, "[Y]ou never recover before the cleaning up of the banking sector has been done." And right now, Geithner's clean up is premised on an assumption with which more and more people are taking issue.

ECONOMY -- SEN. LINCOLN'S $250 BILLION ESTATE TAX CUT HELPS ONLY 60 SMALL BUSINESSES: Last week, 10 Democrats in the Senate joined all 41 Republicans in voting for a $250 billion proposal to cut estate taxes. More than 99 percent of this cost (approximately $249.5 billion) would go to the inheritors of estates worth over $7 million. Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ) were the key advocates of the proposal, and in a press release, Lincoln touted the measure, claiming that it was "aimed at farms and small businesses." "With all the money we've spent to help the economy improve, very little of it has filtered down to Main Street and family-owned businesses," the release said. However, as a New York Times editorial noted, "[T]he implication is that upon the death of an owner, estate taxes typically devastate small businesses and the jobs they provide. That is swill." Indeed, according to a new Tax Policy Center (TPC) analysis, Lincoln and Kyl want to spend $250 billion slashing taxes for the heirs of multi-millionaires in order to save just 60 small businesses or farms from the estate tax. "We estimate that under the Obama proposal, 100 family farms and businesses would owe tax...The Lincoln-Kyl proposal would cut the number to 40," the analysis says. The Times notes that according to the Congressional Budget Office, "almost all such estates are able to pay the tax bill without having to sell business assets." As the TPC pointed out, "the biggest winners [of the estate tax cut] would be the very wealthy. Estates worth over $20 million would save an average of $3.5 million."

CIVIL RIGHTS -- FAR-RIGHT GROUP WARNS OF A 'GATHERING STORM' OF MARRIAGE EQUALITY: In the wake of marriage equality victories in Iowa and Vermont -- and promising signs in New York and Washington, D.C. -- far-right activists are gearing for a battle. Yesterday, the National Organization for Marriage (NOM) announced a $1.5 million national advertising campaign to fight marriage equality. NOM executive director Brian Brown s "the biggest lie" that marriage equality advocates tell "is that it's not going to have any affect on you." He argued, "In state after state, we've seen same-sex marriage directly conflict with the people's religious beliefs." The group's first ad featured "people describing same-sex marriage as a threat to their personal and religious freedoms against a backdrop of dark clouds and bolts of lightening." One actor warned of "a storm gathering"; "I am afraid," another woman intones. A third complained that she is "helplessly watching public schools teach my son that gay marriage is OK." It's true, Center for American Progress Action Fund Fellow Matthew Yglesias noted, that with the end of Jim Crow came the end of teaching that racism was acceptable -- "a big imposition on racists." Similarly, "people who don't like gay people can be legitimately concerned that the spread of gay equality will create an environment in which their children are less likely to share their own prejudices." The Human Rights Campaign has more on the lies peddled by the ad.