REVIEW MORNING LINE
ROLLING AVERAGES
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LARGER MAP
ROLLING AVERAGES
LARGER MAP
National
- Obama has a 6 point lead, three short of the best he's had this campaign
- Obama is 163 electoral votes ahead of McCain with 111 undecided.
- Obama has 295 electoral votes, 25 more than needed
Democrats
- Dems could pick up 3-9 Senate seats
- Dems in House could pick up as many as 12 to 40 seats
- Dems pick up as many as 1 governorships or lose 1
Note: Polls are based on past behavior. Thus in an election that is attracting large numbers of new or normally inactive voters, polls may be off by an unusual amount. In the primaries, for example, even the best polls were off by 2-4 points more than statistical error. If there is a high turnout in the general election, it would not be surprising for Obama to receive three or more points more than polls currently indicate. On the other hand, polls may be off in some states and not in others. The overall Progressive Review rolling average for the primaries was off by 6 points, but if you remove the three worst averages out of 34 races, the results were off by a statistically comfortable four points.
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