Thursday, November 22, 2007

Iraq is no longer about terrorism but about ensuring the safe flow of oil

This is from.........newsviewsnolose@yahoogroups.com

Connecticut starts a Running on Empty caucus

Connecticut Legislative Peak Oil and Natural Gas Caucus
• Initiate a Public Education Campaign: We need plain talk that tells the whole story and connects the dots to lay the groundwork for any broad policy package.

• Create a State Department of Energy with overall responsibility to oversee the transition.

• Top priority: develop and coordinate State and local emergency plans to deal with the impacts of sudden fuel reductions. (Fuel allocation, food distribution, transportation, health services, emergency response, etc.)

• Conduct scenarios planning

• Lead long-range sustainability planning: 50 years versus 5.

Iraq is no longer about terrorism but about ensuring the safe flow of oil


November 12, 2007 (posted Oct. 25)
One might imagine that the current debacle in Iraq would shake this
consensus, but there is no evidence that this is so. In fact, the
opposite appears to be the case: possibly fearful that the chaos in
Iraq will spread to other countries in the Gulf region, senior figures
in both parties are calling for a reinvigorated U.S. military role in
the protection of foreign energy deliveries.

Perhaps the most explicit expression of this élite consensus is an
independent task force report, *National Security Consequences of U.S.
Oil Dependency*, backed by many prominent Democrats and Republicans.
It was released by the bipartisan Council on Foreign Relations (CFR),
co-chaired by John Deutch, deputy secretary of defense in the Clinton
Administration, and James Schlesinger, defense secretary in the Nixon
and Ford administrations, in October 2006. The report warns of
mounting perils to the safe flow of foreign oil. Concluding that the
United States alone has the capacity to protect the global oil trade
against the threat of violent obstruction, it argues the need for a
strong U.S. military presence in key producing areas and in the sea
lanes that carry foreign oil to American shores.

In other words, Iraq is no longer about
democracy or WMDs or terrorism but about maintaining regional
stability to ensure the safe flow of petroleum and keep the American
economy on an even keel; it was almost as if he was speaking to the
bipartisan crowd that backed the CFR report cited above.

It is very clear that the Democrats, or at least mainstream Democrats,
are finding it exceedingly difficult to contest this argument head-on.
In March, for example, Senator Hillary Clinton told the *New York
Times* that Iraq is "right in the heart of the oil region" and so "it
is directly in opposition to our interests" for it to become a failed
state or a pawn of Iran. This means, she continued, that it will be
necessary to keep some U.S. troops in Iraq indefinitely, to provide
logistical and training support to the Iraqi military. Senator Barack
Obama
has also spoken of the need to maintain a robust U.S. military
presence in Iraq and the surrounding area. Thus, while calling for
the withdrawal of most U.S. combat brigades from Iraq proper, he has
championed an "over-the-horizon force that could prevent chaos in the
wider region."

Given this perspective, it is very hard for mainstream Democrats to
challenge Bush when he says that an "enduring" U.S. military presence
is needed in Iraq or to change the Administration's current policy,
barring a major military setback or some other unforeseen event. By
the same token, it will be hard for the Democrats to avert a U.S.
attack on Iran if this can be portrayed as a necessary move to prevent
Tehran from threatening the long-term safety of Persian Gulf oil
supplies.
Nation
24 Apr 2007: Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari: "...My World Oil Production Capacity model has predicted that over the next 14 years, present global production of 82 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32%, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020."
Last year, in an address to the senate of Australia, Bakhtiari stated that "I can see a range of $100-150 [per barrel of oil] not very far into the future."
10 Aug 2006: The effects of even a small drop in production can be devastating. For instance, during the 1970s oil shocks, shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple.
Andrew Gould, CEO of Schlumberger, said of the oil decline that "An accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption".

Matt Simmons also believes that an 8% rate of decline is possible, given how Saudi Arabia's fields were mismanaged, the use of technology to extract the oil sooner than it would have otherwise been pumped, other super giant oil fields having depleted rapidly after their peak, and the likelihood that Saudi oil reserves are probably half of what is reported.

The decline after peak might initially be low, buying a few years of time, but if it does reach 8% per year, world oil extraction would decline by almost half in eight years.
A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.

http://www.energybulletin.net/19131.html#sdendnote48sym
Metals shortages
There is plenty of aluminum in the earth's crust but it is conjoined with many other sediments and minerals making the smelting process extremely energy intensive. Currently there are worries that aluminum smelters will go out of business as they see their profits eroded by high energy costs.14 If this happens demand for aluminum will outstrip the available supply not because the world is running out of aluminum but because we are running out of cheap energy to refine it.

Venezuela has just announced it will not export even one pound of aluminum by 2012.15 Chavez seems to fully understand what Peak Oil will mean for his country. Building infrastructure to smelt aluminum at home is a form of re-localization for Venezuela and recognition that globalization will die with the coming peak in global hydrocarbon production. Chavez can't be the only world leader to realize this. If other heads of state follow through with similar declarations, global commodity markets will see even higher prices.

The global supply of aluminum has been extremely tight and as energy prices rise it is unlikely that there will be a glut of this metal anytime soon. FTW has previously reported on China's commodity buying binge over the last two years. China's demand for aluminum continues to soar which has forced them to announce restrictions on their exports of the metal. They have also cut down their aluminum production to save energy that is needed elsewhere in their economy.11

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/031606_renewables_part4.shtml

Supplies of indium, used in liquid-crystal displays, and of hafnium, a critical element for next-generation semiconductors, could be exhausted by 2017.

In the respected British publication's audit of "Earth's natural wealth," David Cohen writes that reserves of elements from platinum (used not only in every pollution-reducing automobile catalytic converter in use today but also in fuel cells) to indium (used in flat-screen TVs and computer monitors) and tantalum (used in mobile phones) are "being used up at an alarming rate." These metals are chemical elements -- no synthetic replacement can be developed.

Shortages of rare metals could slow or prevent the development of new, more efficient solar panels (by, for example, DayStar Technologies Inc.) that use a combination of copper, indium, gallium and selenide.

http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=199703110

...according to a group of researchers who compiled data on its extraction, use, recycling and discard to estimate whether there is enough copper available (on Earth) to make a developed standard of living available to all the world's people. The short answer is: no. Copper is also relatively scarce compared to other metals like iron or aluminum that make up a good portion of the earth itself.

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000CEA15-3272-13C8-9BFE83414B7FFE87

When considering the role of oil in the production of modern technology, remember that most alternative systems of energy — including solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. all rely on sophisticated technology and mettalurgy.

In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper, and/or platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted, transported, and fashioned using oil powered machinery. For instance, in his book, The Lean Years: Politics of Scarcity, author Richard J. Barnet writes:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/tp.gifTo produce a ton of copper requires 112 million BTU's or the
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/tp.gifequivalent of 17.8 barrels of oil. The energy cost component
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/tp.gifof aluminum is twenty times higher.
Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 year after oil peaks; Peak Oil was in 2006, so 2016.

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