Justifications for Attacking Iran on Shaky Ground

By Jonathan S. Landay and Warren P. Strobel
McClatchy Newspapers

Friday 02 February 2007

Washington - The Bush administration is stepping up its confrontation with Iran, accusing the Islamic regime in Tehran of supplying arms to Shiite Muslim militias in Iraq for attacks on U.S. forces.

But the White House's failure to document its case, its acute credibility deficit, and a new U.S. intelligence finding that outside meddling is "not likely" a major cause of the bloodshed are raising questions about President Bush's intentions. Further, U.S. government data shows that Sunni Muslim insurgents commit most of the anti-U.S. violence in Iraq.

Moreover, the administration lacks proof that Iranian weapons shipments into Iraq are sanctioned by the theocratic leadership or are being carried out by rogue elements, as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed on Friday.

"I don't know that we know the answer to that question," said Gates.

Some experts, citing Bush's order to send more U.S. air and naval forces to the Persian Gulf, worry that - in a repeat of the erroneous claims used to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq - the president is exaggerating the Iranian role to build a case for attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.

"It would be interesting to know why the (administration's) statements have gotten more bellicose. It would be interesting to know why there are aircraft carriers in the region," former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright told a Senate committee on Wednesday. "We have learned the hard way what happens when this administration decided on a policy without putting its assumptions to the test of legislative scrutiny and informed debate."

Bush and his top aides deny that they have been exaggerating Iran's role in Iraq, saying it has to be seen in the context of what they contend is Tehran's efforts to dominate the oil-rich Persian Gulf and the assertion of its influence in Lebanon, other Arab countries with large Shiite populations, Syria and the Palestinian territories.

They also insist that the United States has no intention of attacking Iran.

"The president has made clear, the secretary of state has made clear, I've made clear ... we are not planning for a war with Iran," Gates told reporters. "What we are trying to do is, in Iraq, counter what the Iranians are doing to our soldiers, their involvement and activities."

Still, many experts worry that the escalation in tensions is raising the danger that a misstep by either side could lead to open conflict.

"It's a high risk strategy ... and does have the possibility of actually making things worse," warned Gary Sick of Columbia University, a leading expert on Iran.

U.S. intelligence and defense officials familiar with the intelligence contend that - unlike pre-invasion assessments on Iraq - U.S. intelligence agencies have all concluded that Shiite fighters have been attacking American troops with weapons supplied by Iran.

"No one sees a problem," asserted a U.S. defense official who requested anonymity because the issue involves top-secret intelligence.

A senior U.S. intelligence official agreed, however, that the administration faces a hard sell.

"The administration is between a rock and a hard place here," he said. "On one hand, they have to convince people here and abroad that this time they're telling the truth and they've got the goods, which won't be easy. And a lot of our friends in the region, like the Saudis and the Israelis and the Lebanese, are nervous and want us to get tough with Iran."

Challenged by Iran to make its evidence public, the administration has postponed briefings on what one U.S. official called "the Iran Dossier."

On Friday, the National Intelligence Council, comprising the top U.S. intelligence analysts, released an assessment on the Iraq crisis that said "lethal support" from Iran to Shia militants "clearly intensifies" the conflict but is not a significant factor.

"Iraq's neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events in Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is lot likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining" sectarian strife, said the analysis, known as a National Intelligence Estimate.

The United States has long accused Iran of meddling in Iraq by supporting majority Shiite Muslim religious parties and militias bent on dominating the country after decades of repression under the late dictator Saddam Hussein.

But the administration's charges against the theocratic regime have sharpened as the bloodshed has worsened and key Republicans have joined majority Democrats in Congress in opposing Bush's plan to deploy an additional 21,500 U.S. troops.

Moreover, European allies, Russia and China are resisting toughening U.N. sanctions on Iran for defying demands to suspend its uranium enrichment program, which U.S. and European officials believe is for developing nuclear weapons.

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Drew Brown contributed to this story.

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