POLITICS

Election 2006: A Progressive Analysis

The American people on Tuesday delivered a powerful rebuke to President Bush and his strategic vision. Exit polls show that voters had many issues on their minds -- Iraq, corruption, terrorism and the economy -- and in each of these cases, the message was clear: America needs a new direction. Below, a progressive analysis of the 2006 elections:

AMERICA'S PROGRESSIVE MAJORITY: Some have argued that the election results were actually an endorsement of conservatism. Columnist George Will predicted, "We could be seeing the creation of a more conservative House of Representatives than the one we just had." CNBC anchor Larry Kudlow claimed the "changeover in the House may well be a conservative victory, not a liberal one." Even the Washington Post, in a front page analysis, declared that the election showed that the nation "leans slightly the right of center." This analysis is seriously flawed. The election results were notably mixed: some progressives won (Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)) and others lost (Ned Lamont (D-CT)); some centrist or center-right candidates won (Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)) and others lost (Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)). But according to a Media Matters analysis of the 27 candidates who (as of the morning of Nov. 8) had unseated majority Republicans or won open seats previously held by the majority party, all support a core progressive agenda. All 27 candidates back raising the minimum wage, advocate changing course in Iraq, and oppose efforts to privatize Social Security. Only two of the 27 oppose embryonic stem cell research, and only five describe themselves as "pro-life." In fact, the significant shift on Tuesday was the collapse of the "Reagan Coalition" voting bloc that had been nurtured by the conservative movement for 20 years. Majorities of every income category under $100,000; six in 10 of both moderates and independents; all non-college educated voters; and the majority of Catholics, all voted for change. In other words, the so-called Reagan Democrats -- economic-minded, working class voters concentrated heavily in the Rust Belt -- returned home to the progressive movement.

A NEW DIRECTION IN IRAQ: Iraq was unquestionably a defining issue of the 2006 election. In exit polls, 60 percent of voters said the war in Iraq has "hurt the long-term security of the United States," and more than half said they supported the withdrawal of some U.S. troops from Iraq. Americans' desire for change in Iraq was clear enough to signal a historic change at the White House, as President Bush announced the resignation of Iraq war architect Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. President Bush has notably tapped Robert Gates, the former CIA Director under President George H. W. Bush and a close ally of Iraq war critic Brent Scowcroft, to take his place. Gates is a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group charged with assessing President Bush's Iraq policy, which reportedly may advocate a phased withdrawal of American soldiers from Iraq.

AN AGENDA FOR THE COMMON GOOD: Voters on Tuesday rejected the redistribution of wealth to the top and demanded a return to policies that benefit the common good. Progressives pledged to advocate policies that help the middle class and the least fortunate among us to get ahead: raising the minimum wage; restoring fiscal responsibility and pay-as-you-go rules so future generations aren't saddled with debt; addressing the nation's health care crisis by expanding coverage and laying a basis for structural reform (such as allowing employers and individuals to buy into Medicare); and reforming the Medicare prescription drug benefit, so that Medicare can negotiate directly with the pharmaceutical industry for lower drug prices. Social Security privatization and permanent tax cuts for the wealthy are now off the table. This common good sentiment was evident on the state level as well. Six initiatives to increase the minimum wage all passed. Major tax cuts, along with strict tax and spending limits in six states all failed.

EFFECTIVE AND HONEST GOVERNMENT: Tuesday's election also reflected a strong desire to change how Congress works for the American people. Forty-two percent of voters said congressional corruption was "extremely important" to their vote, more than any other single issue, and progressives campaigned on far-reaching lobbying and ethics reform packages. Progressives also pledged to work cooperatively with their political opponents for effective, bipartisan results. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has pledged to restore minority party rights in the House denied under Republican rule, including ensuring a "full amendment process that grants the minority the right to offer its alternatives," and committing "at least one-third of committee budgets and office space" to the minority party.

A DULL WEDGE: Tuesday's election also demonstrated the limits of the conservatives' divisive wedge issue strategy. "From the country's heartland," the AP noted, "voters sent messages that altered America's culture wars and dismayed the religious right." South Dakota voters chose to overturn the hard-line abortion ban passed by the state legislature, which only included an exception to prevent the death of the pregnant woman, and Kansas Attorney General Phill Kline (R), who "had touted his efforts to seize women's medical records from abortion clinics," was defeated. Missouri approved a landmark ballot initiative protecting all stem cell research permitted under federal law (while prohibiting human cloning). For the first time, a proposed ban on same-sex marriage failed in Arizona, and while seven other gay marriage bans did pass, they "appeared far less energizing to conservative candidates and their supporters." Efforts to turn hardline enforcement-only immigration policies into a "silver bullet" for electoral success also failed decisively. In Arizona, the two House candidates who hammered immigration most fervently -- Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), and former state Rep. Randy Graf (R), a founding member of the Minuteman militia -- both lost seats in conservative districts. Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-MN), who argued that "illegal immigration would play a bigger role in the election than the war in Iraq," was voted out of office.