newsviewsnolose@yahoogroups.com on behalf of dick.mcmanus
THE INSUFFICIENCY OF PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLIES - April 17, 2008
The capacity of the global energy industry to satisfy demand is
shrinking. By all accounts, the global supply of oil will expand for
perhaps another half-decade before reaching a peak and beginning to
decline, while supplies of natural gas, coal, and uranium will
probably grow for another decade or two before peaking and commencing
their own inevitable declines. In the meantime, global supplies of
these existing fuels will prove incapable of reaching the elevated
levels demanded.
Take oil. The U.S. Department of Energy claims that world oil demand,
expected to reach 117.6 million barrels per day in 2030, will be
matched by a supply that -- miracle of miracles -- will hit exactly
117.7 million barrels (including petroleum liquids derived from allied
substances like natural gas and Canadian tar sands) at the same time.
Most energy professionals, however, consider this estimate highly
unrealistic. "One hundred million barrels is now in my view an
optimistic case," the CEO of Total, Christophe de Margerie, typically
told a London oil conference in October 2007. "It is not my view; it
is the industry view, or the view of those who like to speak clearly,
honestly, and [are] not just trying to please people."
Similarly, the authors of the *Medium-Term Oil Market Report*,
published in July 2007 by the International Energy Agency, an
affiliate of the OECD, concluded that world oil output might hit 96
million barrels per day by 2012, but was unlikely to go much beyond
that as a dearth of new discoveries made future growth impossible.
Daily business-page headlines point to a vortex of clashing trends:
worldwide demand will continue to grow as hundred of millions of
newly-affluent Chinese and Indian consumers line up to purchase their
first automobile (some selling for as little as $2,500); key older
"elephant" oil fields like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia and Canterell in
Mexico are already in decline or expected to be so soon; and the rate
of new oil-field discoveries plunges year after year. So expect
global energy shortages and high prices to be a constant source of
hardship.
THE PAINFULLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
It has long been evident to policymakers that new sources of energy
are desperately needed to compensate for the eventual disappearance of
existing fuels as well as to slow the buildup of climate-changing
"greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. In fact, wind and solar power
have gained significant footholds in some parts of the world. But these alternatives, which now contribute only a tiny percentage of the world's net fuel supply, are simply not being
developed fast enough to avert the multifaceted global energy
catastrophe that lies ahead.
The capacity of the global energy industry to satisfy demand is
shrinking. By all accounts, the global supply of oil will expand for
perhaps another half-decade before reaching a peak and beginning to
decline, while supplies of natural gas, coal, and uranium will
probably grow for another decade or two before peaking and commencing
their own inevitable declines. In the meantime, global supplies of
these existing fuels will prove incapable of reaching the elevated
levels demanded.
Take oil. The U.S. Department of Energy claims that world oil demand,
expected to reach 117.6 million barrels per day in 2030, will be
matched by a supply that -- miracle of miracles -- will hit exactly
117.7 million barrels (including petroleum liquids derived from allied
substances like natural gas and Canadian tar sands) at the same time.
Most energy professionals, however, consider this estimate highly
unrealistic. "One hundred million barrels is now in my view an
optimistic case," the CEO of Total, Christophe de Margerie, typically
told a London oil conference in October 2007. "It is not my view; it
is the industry view, or the view of those who like to speak clearly,
honestly, and [are] not just trying to please people."
Similarly, the authors of the *Medium-Term Oil Market Report*,
published in July 2007 by the International Energy Agency, an
affiliate of the OECD, concluded that world oil output might hit 96
million barrels per day by 2012, but was unlikely to go much beyond
that as a dearth of new discoveries made future growth impossible.
Daily business-page headlines point to a vortex of clashing trends:
worldwide demand will continue to grow as hundred of millions of
newly-affluent Chinese and Indian consumers line up to purchase their
first automobile (some selling for as little as $2,500); key older
"elephant" oil fields like Ghawar in Saudi Arabia and Canterell in
Mexico are already in decline or expected to be so soon; and the rate
of new oil-field discoveries plunges year after year. So expect
global energy shortages and high prices to be a constant source of
hardship.
THE PAINFULLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ENERGY ALTERNATIVES
It has long been evident to policymakers that new sources of energy
are desperately needed to compensate for the eventual disappearance of
existing fuels as well as to slow the buildup of climate-changing
"greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. In fact, wind and solar power
have gained significant footholds in some parts of the world. But these alternatives, which now contribute only a tiny percentage of the world's net fuel supply, are simply not being
developed fast enough to avert the multifaceted global energy
catastrophe that lies ahead.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, renewable fuels, including
wind, solar, and hydropower (along with "traditional" fuels like
firewood and dung), supplied but 7.4% of global energy in 2004;
biofuels added another 0.3%. Meanwhile, fossil fuels -- oil, coal,
and natural gas -- supplied 86% percent of world energy, nuclear power
another 6%. Based on current rates of development and investment, the
DoE offers the following dismal projection: In 2030, fossil fuels
will still account for exactly the same share of world energy as in
2004. The expected increase in renewables and biofuels is so slight
-- a mere 8.1% -- as to be virtually meaningless.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174919/michael_klare_oil_rules_
wind, solar, and hydropower (along with "traditional" fuels like
firewood and dung), supplied but 7.4% of global energy in 2004;
biofuels added another 0.3%. Meanwhile, fossil fuels -- oil, coal,
and natural gas -- supplied 86% percent of world energy, nuclear power
another 6%. Based on current rates of development and investment, the
DoE offers the following dismal projection: In 2030, fossil fuels
will still account for exactly the same share of world energy as in
2004. The expected increase in renewables and biofuels is so slight
-- a mere 8.1% -- as to be virtually meaningless.
http://www.tomdispa
Joining the ROE caucuses
We have started a Running on Empty (ROE) caucus of Washington State Democrats . We have also started a national ROE caucus. The goal of this caucus is to bring more emphasis by our Party to the coming end of cheap oil and natural gas which will result in an extreme disaster.
To become a member of our caucus we require some more information from you. If you agree or basically agree with the following statements and you are a Democrat, then we will accept you into our caucus.
We request you comment on our below listed platform statements.
1. There are no sustainable energy sources that will rescue us at our current population levels.
2. Population reduction must be a part of any plan to rationally deal with peak oil (the end of cheap oil, natural gas, and coal), atmospheric destabilization, biological/species decline, and natural resource depletion.
3. Absent immediate attention to peak oil, our government and/or political system have no chance whatsoever to react soon enough to help us.
4. We need a US Constitutional amendment defining a corporation as not a natural person and therefore, the rights to equal protection under the 14th Amendment do not apply.
5. Whereas, We the Democratic party) think, based on evidence accumulated since these two elections, that the last two Presidential elections were won by the Democratic Party candidate. In 2000, the US Supreme Court stole the election by stopping the recount and in both 2000 and 2004, the Republican Party stole the election by intentional misconduct and illegal acts, therefore be it resolve that the election laws need to be enforced.
I came up with the idea of this caucus after reading the following books, The Party's Over and Powerdown by Richard Heinberg, The Long Emergency by James Kunstler, and Unequal Protection by Thom Hartmann.
I came up with the idea of this caucus after reading the following books, The Party's Over and Powerdown by Richard Heinberg, The Long Emergency by James Kunstler, and Unequal Protection by Thom Hartmann.
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