NOW THAT THE YOUNG WANT OBAMA, BETTER NOT DISAPPOINT THEM

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PAUL LOEB - Studies from the past fifty years find that party loyalties
tend to form early--for Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike.
It was true for the FDR generation, for those who came of age during the
anti-war activism of the late Vietnam era, and with the young adults who
helped cascade Reagan into office and whose compatriots have remained
more conservative ever since. . .

The votes of 18- to 29-year-olds started shifting back in the Clinton
years. Young voters gave Clinton an initial 9 point margin and increased
it the next round, but their turnout dropped from the highest since
18-year-olds got the vote to the lowest in the same period. In 2000,
Gore led Bush among this group by 3%, with Ralph Nader bleeding off
another 5%. Led by increases in young African American and Latino
voters, they were the only generation to favor Kerry, and did so by a
ten percent margin.

These shifts accelerated in 2006. Fueled by the Bush administration's
myriad disasters, young voters played a critical role, supporting
Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by a massive 60% to
38% difference. They did so in every region of the country, from a three
to one split in the East to a three point margin in the South. They
provided the critical margin for Senators Tester, Webb and McCaskill,
and fed the victories of the four other victorious challengers. Had it
been up to young Americans alone, the Democrats would have also won
Senate campaigns in Tennessee, Arizona, and Nevada; Ned Lamont would
have defeated Joe Lieberman in Connecticut, and a slew of additional
House seats would have changed hands. The Democrats would have elected
Senators from 26 states, with Republicans carrying just four. . .

If Hillary Clinton is nominated, this momentum will likely crumble. The
young women and men who've been flooding the Democratic primaries and
caucuses will feel betrayed by a candidate who's just finished doing her
best to destroy the person they've invested their hopes in. And as a
result, they may simply stay home. . .

[Paul Rogat Loeb is the author of The Impossible Will Take a Little
While: A Citizen's Guide to Hope in a Time of Fear

http://www.paulloeb.org

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