Santa's Gonna Be Pissed
Arctic summer ice could melt nearly completely by mid-century, study says
The Arctic Ocean could lose nearly all of its summer ice by 2040, says a study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Research suggests that Arctic ice will begin retreating rapidly around 2024; by mid-century, far northern Canada and Greenland may claim the summer's only ice, while the North Pole will be ocean. A different study, from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, finds that the Arctic refroze slooowly this fall, with November's average ice cover the lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979. "It's becoming increasingly unlikely that things will be able to turn around," says researcher Walt Meier, a glass-half-empty sort of chap. While a melting Arctic sucks for polar bears and Inuit subsistence hunters, The Man may profit from new shipping lanes, more-accessible oil supplies, commercial fishing grounds, and tourism. Next week, advisers plan to urge President Bush to get busy replacing the U.S.'s aging icebreakers. We only wish we were making that up.
 | NEW IN GRIST Walking the Stalk Grist series looks at world's fondest fuel hope |
Today we take a closer look at a fuel with an unwieldy name and a lot of promise: cellulosic ethanol (Tickle-Me Wii-thanol?). Jennifer Weeks talks with a Dartmouth College professor who's been researching cellulosic ethanol since before you could drive, and Sharon Boddy makes a virtual visit to a demonstration plant in Ottawa, Canada, that's already producing the stuff. This is not science fiction -- it's happening now. 
Mileage in Mirror Is Smaller Than It Appears
U.S. EPA revises vehicle mileage formula for 2008 and beyond
Wondering why your Escalade gets eight miles to the gallon, not the 11 that was advertised? U.S. EPA to the rescue! In a move reflecting "real-world numbers," the agency has revised the way it crunches mileage numbers for the first time since 1984. The new formula -- ordered by Congress last year and debuting with 2008 models -- considers formerly ignored factors like weather, air conditioning, super-speedy acceleration (yeah, we're looking at you), and stop-and-go traffic. It's likely to cut current city-mile estimates by 12 percent and highway-mile numbers by 8 percent; stats for hybrids will drop even more, because of changes in how the cars' all-electric mode is calculated. The shift "ensures American motorists won't be stuck with higher-than-anticipated charges at the pump," said Stephen Johnson, who heads the agency. Giddy bureaucrats also declared that mileage estimates must be posted for medium-duty pickups, vans, and SUVs starting in model year 2011. Whew, reality is heady stuff.
Gems Fightin' Words
Federal agency predictions that mines would not pollute water were wrong, study says
Before giving a precious-metal mine the go-ahead, federal agencies must find that the operation will not taint surrounding waterways with chemicals like arsenic, cadmium, mercury, lead, and cyanide. But for the past 25 years, agencies' pollution predictions "did not generally agree with reality," says Ann Maest, coauthor of a new study by green group Earthworks. The group suggests regulators may rely heavily on the word of industry-hired consultants, rather than past mine experiences and adequate sampling. In response, industry officials suggested that mines that went bust, were abandoned, or weren't built to high environmental standards should not have been included in the study. To which we can only say, "Wha?" And we'll follow that up with a "Whaaa?": Federal regulators have given a mining company permission to dump 4.5 million tons of waste into Alaska's Lower Slate Lake, a move Greg Peck of the U.S. EPA calls "the most environmentally protective way to protect these waters."
The Incredible Bulk
Al Gore plans to launch grassroots carbon-freeze movement
When is a grassroots movement not a grassroots movement? When it's started by a kajillionaire movie-star politician, we'd say. But you can't blame Al Gore for trying. At a venture-capital conference last week, Gore returned to the "carbon freeze" idea he's been bandying about for a while, saying he would "launch an ongoing campaign of mass persuasion at the beginning of 2007" to cut greenhouse gases. The ex-veep envisions a popular groundswell similar to the nuclear-freeze movement of the '80s. Which he once deemed "naïve and simplistic," but hey, times change. Who, for instance, would ever have suspected that last week's conference pronouncement would follow on the heels of visits to Oprah and Jay Leno? Who would have guessed that "Al Bore" would be up for a possible Oscar nod for a climate-change documentary? And who'da thunk he'd be back to run for president in 2008? No, he hasn't committed, but "I haven't completely ruled it out," he said last week. We are but mice in your game, sir.
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