As pundits expect the end of Clinton’s candidacy soon, media content analysis does not yet fully support the obituary. “Last week Media Tenor data indicated that the trend moved back to Obama, but there’s no clear push in one direction,” explains Roland Schatz, President of Media Tenor International. Media Tenor analyzes the tone of TV coverage of all Presidential contenders. Previous research has shown that poll results tend to follow the media trend when the tone of coverage continuously goes in one direction. Current analysis includes Thursday’s evening news. “The data changes day by day,” Schatz says. The total balance this week shows that Obama was rated slightly negative for the first time this year.
“However, the negative expectations might turn out as self-fulfilling prophecies for Clinton and therefore might harm her candidacy,” Schatz adds. As the decisive period approaches, coverage focuses on horse race issues. Attacks on Obama by Clinton and McCain affected the rating of his record and his experience. But the tone of horse race coverage is still positive for Obama. “And that might lead to a bandwagon effect that helps Obama in the upcoming primaries,” Schatz says.
As detailed - sentence by sentence - research reveals, less than 20% of the coverage dealt with the candidate’s platform or with policy issues. Horse race effects might hide the fact that Obama still has an image problem, when his record or his leadership qualities are mentioned. Although issue-related coverage was low in volume, the candidates’ images are framed in the public’s eyes. As a recent poll shows, Obama has not yet convinced the voters of his platform of change. “This might be enough to win the nomination, but might be a problem later this year,” Schatz says.
Media Tenor research shows a similar result on the Republican side: foreign policy did not play a major role in February coverage. But when mentioned, Senator McCain had a split image. “In the tone of coverage, McCain was slightly positive,” Schatz says, “but the trend has turned in February.” This might be a problem for McCain if the Iraq topic returns to the agenda.
Network coverage of Obama slightly negative
For the first time this year, the tone of network coverage of Senator Obama was slightly negative. Attacks on Obama by Clinton and McCain affected the rating of his record and his experience. However, Senator Clinton’s ratings did not take advantage of this.
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 1/1 – 2/28/2008*: tone of coverage by weeks
Basis: all statements by or on Clinton and Obama on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 1/1 – 2/28/2008 (*individual newscasts missing)
Polls follow TV, but trend moves back to Obama
Media Tenor’s “Complementary Trend” compares the TV coverage of Obama and Clinton: who was rated better. There is no clear trend this week, which means no clear push in one or the other direction.
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 2/1 – 2/28/2008: tone of coverage by days
Basis: all statements by or on Obama and Clinton on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 2/1 – 2/28/2008
Positive coverage on NBC only
While NBC expects “the final nail is likely going into the Clinton coffin” (Chuck Todd), the other networks covered Obama slightly negatively this week. Attacks by Clinton and McCain led to this result, but overall journalists were skeptical too.
ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News candidate coverage, 02/25 – 02/28/2008: Obama
Basis: all statements by or on Obama on ABC, CBS and NBC and FOX evening news programs 02/25 – 02/28/2008
Two week analysis: McCain vs. Obama
When Obama was covered, he could only score on campaign and horse race issues. The tone of coverage was negative, not only regarding his record and experience, but also when personality issues were raised.
ABC, NBC, CBS and FOX news candidate coverage, 2/18 – 2/28/2008: tone of coverage by topics
Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 2/18 – 2/28/2008
Split image for McCain on foreign policy issues
When foreign policy issues were raised in February, Senator McCain received the highest share both of positive and negative comments. This has led to a split image, as recent poll results show.
ABC, NBC, CBS evening news candidate coverage, 2/1 – 2/28/2008: foreign policy
Basis: all statements by or on McCain, Obama and Clinton on ABC, CBS, NBC evening news programs 2/1 – 2/28/2008
To read the full Media Tenor election report in PDF format click here.
For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns but also for International politics as well,” Schatz explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on Candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding on an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.
For further information visit: MediaTenor.com
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