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World Oil production may decrease by 32% over the next 14 years
24 Apr 2007: Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari: says ".. My World Oil Production Capacity model has predicted that over the next 14 years, present global production of 82 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32%, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020."
Last year, in an address to the senate of Australia, Bakhtiari stated that "I can see a range of $100-150 [per barrel of oil] not very far into the future."
10 Aug 2006: The effects of even a small drop in production can be devastating. For instance, during the 1970s oil shocks, shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price of oil to nearly quadruple.
Andrew Gould, CEO of Schlumberger, said of the oil decline that "An accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption".
Matt Simmons also believes that an 8% rate of decline is possible, given how Saudi Arabia's fields were mismanaged, the use of technology to extract the oil sooner than it would have otherwise been pumped, other super giant oil fields having depleted rapidly after their peak, and the likelihood that Saudi oil reserves are probably half of what is reported.
The decline after peak might initially be low, buying a few years of time, but if it does reach 8% per year, world oil extraction would decline by almost half in eight years.( present global production of 82 million barrels per day or 41 million barrels per day)
A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10 to 15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.
http://www.energybu
Metals shortages
There is plenty of aluminum in the earth's crust but it is conjoined with many other sediments and minerals making the smelting process extremely energy intensive.
Currently there are worries that aluminum smelters will go out of business as they see their profits eroded by high energy costs. If this happens demand for aluminum will outstrip the available supply not because the world is running out of aluminum but because we are running out of cheap energy to refine it.
Venezuela has just announced it will not export even one pound of aluminum by 2012. Chavez seems to fully understand what Peak Oil will mean for his country. Building infrastructure to smelt aluminum at home is a form of re-localization for Venezuela and recognition that globalization will die with the coming peak in global hydrocarbon production. Chavez can't be the only world leader to realize this. If other heads of state follow through with similar declarations, global commodity markets will see even higher prices.
The global supply of aluminum has been extremely tight and as energy prices rise it is unlikely that there will be a glut of this metal anytime soon. FTW has previously reported on China's commodity buying binge over the last two years. China's demand for aluminum continues to soar which has forced them to announce restrictions on their exports of the metal. They have also cut down their aluminum production to save energy that is needed elsewhere in their economy.
Supplies of indium, used in liquid-crystal displays, and of hafnium, a critical element for next-generation semiconductors, could be exhausted by 2017.
In the respected British publication's audit of "Earth's natural wealth," David Cohen writes that reserves of elements from platinum (used not only in every pollution-reducing automobile catalytic converter in use today but also in fuel cells) to indium (used in flat-screen TVs and computer monitors) and tantalum (used in mobile phones) are "being used up at an alarming rate." These metals are chemical elements -- no synthetic replacement can be developed.
Shortages of rare metals could slow or prevent the development of new, more efficient solar panels (by, for example, DayStar Technologies Inc.) that use a combination of copper, indium, gallium and selenide.
...according to a group of researchers who compiled data on its extraction, use, recycling and discard to estimate whether there is enough copper available (on Earth) to make a developed standard of living available to all the world's people. The short answer is: no. Copper is also relatively scarce compared to other metals like iron or aluminum that make up a good portion of the earth itself.
When considering the role of oil in the production of modern technology, remember that most alternative systems of energy — including solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. all rely on sophisticated technology and mettalurgy.
In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper, and/or platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted, transported, and fashioned using oil powered machinery. For instance, in his book, The Lean Years: Politics of Scarcity, author Richard J. Barnet writes:
To produce a ton of copper requires 112 million BTU's or the
equivalent of 17.8 barrels of oil. The energy cost component
of aluminum is twenty times higher.
Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 year after oil peaks; Peak Oil was in 2006, so 2016.
Main source: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
The Real Cost of the Peru Free Trade Agreement
NOTE: the US House of Reps. passed this bill
23 November 2007: By November 2002, the US Department of Labor had certified 507,000 workers for extended unemployment benefits because their employers had moved their jobs south of the border. The Department of Labor stopped counting NAFTA job losses, but the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, DC, estimated that NAFTA had eliminated 879,000 jobs. That was five years ago.
But US job loss didn't produce job increases in Mexico - it eliminated them there too. In NAFTA's first year, more than a million jobs disappeared in the economic crisis NAFTA caused.
To attract investment in Mexico, the treaty required privatization of factories, railroads and other large enterprises, leading to more layoffs of Mexican workers.
On the border, Ford, General Electric and other corporations built factories and moved production from the United States to take advantage of low wages. But more than 400,000 maquiladora workers lost their jobs in 2000-2001 when US consumers cut back spending in the last recession, and companies found even lower wages in other countries, such as El Salvador or China.
Before NAFTA, US auto plants in Mexico had to buy parts from Mexican factories, which employed thousands of local workers. But NAFTA let the auto giants bring in cheaper parts from their own subsidiaries, so Mexican auto parts workers lost their jobs, too.
The profits of US grain companies, already subsidized under the US farm bill, went higher when NAFTA allowed them to dump cheap corn on the Mexican market, while at the same time it forced Mexico to cut its agricultural subsidies. As a result, small farmers in Oaxaca and Chiapas couldn't sell corn anymore at a price that would pay the cost of growing it.
When corn farmers couldn't farm, or auto parts and maquiladora workers were laid off, where did they go? They became migrants.
Today a huge mining corporation, Grupo Mexico, has provoked a strike by demanding that miners work 12 hours a day instead of eight in Peru's largest copper mine. The Peruvian government supports the company, because it believes longer hours and lower wages will attract more foreign investment.
Since NAFTA passed, Grupo Mexico has forced strikes and cut thousands of jobs at its Mexican mines to cut labor costs, and the government there has also cooperated.
Why Impeach George W. Bush and Richard B. Cheney:
1. deliberately misled the nation (lied to the American people) and doctored intelligence, as described in the Downing Street minutes, about the threat from Iraq in order to justify a war of aggression and an occupation of Iraq,
1. deliberately misled the nation (lied to the American people) and doctored intelligence, as described in the Downing Street minutes, about the threat from Iraq in order to justify a war of aggression and an occupation of Iraq,
former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill says that at AWOL Bush's first National Security Council meeting, the discussion was not if the US should do preemptively invade Iraq, but MAKE IT HAPPEN.
2. committed crimes against peace by initiating war against Iraq in violation of the UN Charter and lead to the death over 3700 American soldiers and severely wounded nearly 30,000, costing the US tax payers, and put the nation into great debt.
3. committed crimes against humanity in their conduct of the occupation of Iraq in which they killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians (used depleted uranium) and created millions of refugees;
2. committed crimes against peace by initiating war against Iraq in violation of the UN Charter and lead to the death over 3700 American soldiers and severely wounded nearly 30,000, costing the US tax payers, and put the nation into great debt.
3. committed crimes against humanity in their conduct of the occupation of Iraq in which they killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians (used depleted uranium) and created millions of refugees;
4. an illegal and unjust occupation of Iraq.
6. detained thousands of prisoners without charges and without providing the ability to confront their accusers at a fair trial;
7. condoned the torture of prisoners in violation of the Geneva Conventions, the US anti-torture statute of 1994, the US War Crimes Act of 1996, and the oath of office.
Bush's refusal to faithfully execute the laws prohibiting torture and his declaration on February 7, 2002 that the Geneva Conventions did not apply to prisoners in Afghanistan and in Guantanamo set the stage for torture there.
The Rumsfeld approved Guantanamo torture techniques were then imported to Iraq in August 2003, where the International Committee of the Red Cross found "systemic" mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners in several facilities and where the Schlesinger Report confirmed in August 2004 that abuses were "widespread" and "serious both in number and in effect," and that there is both "institutional and personal responsibility at higher levels";
8. approved at least two different illegal electronic surveillance programs of American citizens without a warrant in violation of the fourth amendment and in violation of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978,
and repeatedly lied to the American people by stating that no surveillance was taking place without a court order. The first program includes intercepting phone and email conversations without warrants and was exposed by the NY Times on December 16, 2005. After that program was exposed Bush said the program was carefully targeted to just include international calls and suspected members of Al Qaeda.
Then, the second program was exposed by USA Today on May 11, 2006. It provides a wholesale attack on the fourth amendment by recording call identification information of tens of millions of purely domestic calls as well as international calls;
and NSA was illegal electronic surveillance of all domestic internet communications using an AT&T.
11. the White House collected information about Wilson and disclosed to reporters that his wife, Valerie Plame, was a covert agent in the CIA counterinsurgency division, putting her life, and the lives of her contacts, at risk in violation of a US law protecting intelligence personnel (The Impeachment of George W. Bush, by Elizabeth Holtzman);
12. In years before Hurricane Katrina Bush demonstrated inexcusable criminal negligence and violated the public trust by cutting the budget for hurricane defense, though the high probability of the breaching of the levees and the enormous risk to human life from a major hurricane hitting New Orleans were predicted and well known for years before the hurricane hit;
14. converted the Justice Department into an arm of the Republican Party by firing meritorious federal prosecutors who refused to base decisions on whom to prosecute on political considerations- -to help Republicans win election,
15. condoned criminal conduct and obstructed justice by commuting the sentence of convicted perjurer Scooter Libby to keep him silent and to demonstrate that Bush and Cheney will not allow high officials in the administration to be held accountable for their criminal acts;
16. obstructed congressional investigations of these and other acts by the administration by defying subpoenas from Senate and House committees seeking documents and testimony under oath by administration officials and former administration officials;
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