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DJELLOUL MARBROOK - Turkey, a Sunni nation and a member of NATO, has
been telling the government of Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad for more than a
year now that it must curb pan-Kurd ambitions in northern Iraq. The
situation is far more volatile than the press has described. The Shias
have their own militias. The Kurds have the well-trained Pesh Merga,
which is in fact a standing army. But Iraq's Sunnis have only their
tribes. That in itself is enough to explain Sunni concerns.
The Kurds would like to see an independent Kurdistan. Considering the
large Kurdish minorities in Iran and Turkey, it is not difficult to see
why Shia Iran and Sunni Turkey are worried. Short of independence, the
Kurds would like a semi-autonomous Kurdistan, which would contain
Mosul's rich oil fields. The Kurds could then continue to agitate for a
greater Kurdistan, perhaps even arming militants inside Iran and Turkey.
Where does this leave us? In the soup, where we have been from the
beginning. Consider these combustibles:
- Turkey has not set foot on Arab land since the fall of the Ottoman
Empire.
- Iran and Turkey are traditional enemies. Iran would feel as
threatened by an expanded border with Turkey as the Arabs feel
threatened by a militant Iran.
- The Sunni Arabs have more in common with the Turks than they have with
the Iranians, but the reappearance of Turkish soldiers on Arab land
would be viewed with alarm.
- There are more than 100 million people in the world of Turkish origin.
Turkey, a secular nation with an Islamist party in power, regards itself
as the protector of these people. There are large Turkish minorities in
Iran and Afghanistan, and people of Turkish origin are spread throughout
Central Asia.
- Turkey has no oil, but it is host to oil pipelines. Moving into
northern Iraq would give Turkey control of its oil fields. The Turks
would say they have come only to stabilize the situation, but that is
our story too, and we have already witnessed how many people in the
world believe us.
If we are soon presented with a situation in which Turkey has as many
troops in Iraq as we do it will change the entire equation, and yet the
Washington establishment - the press, the government, the think tanks,
the industry lobbyists - are all silent about an eventuality that would
change everything in a thin minute.
http://www.djelloulmarbrook.com/
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DJELLOUL MARBROOK - Turkey, a Sunni nation and a member of NATO, has
been telling the government of Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad for more than a
year now that it must curb pan-Kurd ambitions in northern Iraq. The
situation is far more volatile than the press has described. The Shias
have their own militias. The Kurds have the well-trained Pesh Merga,
which is in fact a standing army. But Iraq's Sunnis have only their
tribes. That in itself is enough to explain Sunni concerns.
The Kurds would like to see an independent Kurdistan. Considering the
large Kurdish minorities in Iran and Turkey, it is not difficult to see
why Shia Iran and Sunni Turkey are worried. Short of independence, the
Kurds would like a semi-autonomous Kurdistan, which would contain
Mosul's rich oil fields. The Kurds could then continue to agitate for a
greater Kurdistan, perhaps even arming militants inside Iran and Turkey.
Where does this leave us? In the soup, where we have been from the
beginning. Consider these combustibles:
- Turkey has not set foot on Arab land since the fall of the Ottoman
Empire.
- Iran and Turkey are traditional enemies. Iran would feel as
threatened by an expanded border with Turkey as the Arabs feel
threatened by a militant Iran.
- The Sunni Arabs have more in common with the Turks than they have with
the Iranians, but the reappearance of Turkish soldiers on Arab land
would be viewed with alarm.
- There are more than 100 million people in the world of Turkish origin.
Turkey, a secular nation with an Islamist party in power, regards itself
as the protector of these people. There are large Turkish minorities in
Iran and Afghanistan, and people of Turkish origin are spread throughout
Central Asia.
- Turkey has no oil, but it is host to oil pipelines. Moving into
northern Iraq would give Turkey control of its oil fields. The Turks
would say they have come only to stabilize the situation, but that is
our story too, and we have already witnessed how many people in the
world believe us.
If we are soon presented with a situation in which Turkey has as many
troops in Iraq as we do it will change the entire equation, and yet the
Washington establishment - the press, the government, the think tanks,
the industry lobbyists - are all silent about an eventuality that would
change everything in a thin minute.
http://www.djelloulmarbrook.com/
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