The Progress Report:

IRAQ
Credibility Lost

It is said that a "gaffe" in Washington, D.C. occurs when someone tells the truth but isn't supposed to. Such was the case last week, when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) acknowledged what the American people have long known: the U.S. military, already stretched to its breaking point, cannot effectively police an anarchic civil war in a country of 26 million people. There is no military solution to the current conflict, only a political one, and our most vital tool to encourage political compromise is a timeline for the redeployment of U.S. forces. Conservatives' reaction to these remarks again demonstrated their entrenched ideological commitment to the war: Reid was called "reckless" and accused of "surrender in the face of barbarism." But as Reid will make clear in a major speech at the Woodrow Wilson International Center today, our focus now should be on policy, not politics, and Americans now are faced with a clear choice. "One road leads to endless war, with consequences for America's future security extending well past the borders of Iraq," Reid says. "The other road leads to a responsible end, gives Iraq the best chance for success and allows us to refocus on the challenges we face throughout the world." (For more, read the Center for American Progress's new Iraq memo, "After the Veto: Four Scenarios.")

AMERICANS AGREE: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) accused Reid of "playing to the worst elements of the antiwar left," and Weekly Standard editor William Kristol said yesterday on Fox News Sunday that Reid's remarks were "much more disgraceful" than Sen. Trent Lott's (R-MS) 2002 claim that the country would be much better off if it had maintained racist segregation policies. In fact, as NPR's Juan Williams told Kristol, "Most Americans think we should have never gone in [to Iraq], so he's speaking in a voice that represents the majority of the American people." Some 66 percent of Americans do not believe the United States can succeed in its current mission in Iraq, a USA Today poll found last month. Asked "Will the U.S. win or lose the war?," 35 percent said "win" and 51 percent said "lose" in a Washington Post/ABC News poll last week. Likewise, an Apr. 16 Gallup survey found that 33 percent of Americans "believe that history will ultimately judge the U.S. mission in Iraq a success," while 50 percent "believe the mission will be deemed a failure."

REID ECHOES KISSINGER, MILITARY OFFICIALS: Reid's description of the war is shared by one of President Bush's own regular war advisers, Henry Kissinger. Kissinger said last month that "the problems in Iraq are more complex than [Vietnam], and military victory is no longer possible." Reid's remarks also echo senior military officials. Retired Gen. William Odom, head of Army intelligence and director of the National Security Agency under Ronald Reagan, published an essay in February titled "Victory Is Not An Option." Retired Gen. Tony McPeak, who served on the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the first Gulf War, told Rolling Stone magazine last month, "Even if we had a million men to go in, it's too late now. ... Humpty Dumpty can't be put back together again."

THE REALITY ON THE GROUND: In advance of his intended veto of Congress's Iraq timeline, President Bush is again making the case for his escalation policy. (On Friday, Bush used the word "progress" 10 times in his speech on Iraq.) But U.S. casualties are increasing again and recent weeks have brought the deadliest attack in Baghdad since the war began and the deadliest attack yet inside the Green Zone, a suicide bombing in the Iraqi Parliament. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) said on Friday he doesn't see "any evidence of movement toward a political settlement," which was the explicit purpose of escalation. "If anything, they're probably further away from it, that the chaos which has enveloped and the attack on the assembly, instead of uniting Iraqis, which you would think it would...it has not done that." Meanwhile, Bush has still failed to launch any new meaningful regional diplomatic efforts, and has yet to address "the corruption and mismanagement that continue to plague the reconstruction efforts, costing American taxpayers billions of dollars." The reality on the ground bolsters Congress's position that a change in Iraq is neede d urgently.