Media Tenor - The Economy: Shifting Perceptions, Changing Advantages
New York, September 12, 2008: While the outlook continues to be less negative, economic news increased its share of coverage in the media so far this month, helping to maintain it as a major issue in this election cycle.
“The economy is continuing to receive coverage that’s less negative, even while there are many critical economic issues still in play,” says Roland Schatz, President of Media Tenor International. “Right now, Obama has the advantage on this issue. McCain, however, does better when the news is more positive; we can see this in his reception on Fox News, which has been considerably more upbeat on the economy overall. If the current trend in economic news continues, this may create an advantage for McCain.”
Meanwhile, according to Media Tenor’s data, neither candidate is receiving significant positive coverage on key issues.
“When one of the candidates has an advantage, it’s generally because his opponent is rated so negatively,” notes Schatz. “On the economy, Obama has some favorable coverage, but he has had edge because McCain has received so much negative coverage. We can see the same pattern in tax issues and healthcare. This implies that many Americans may wind up voting against a candidate, instead of for one.”
Now that both party’s political conventions are over, the question is which candidate will sustain their momentum. “This weeks media coverage will keep McCain in the lead as he was presented in a better light than Obama overall.” Schatz says. “Obama, meanwhile, has to be careful that this horse-race driven election coverage doesn’t turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
McCain’s economic weakness benefits Obama
While Obama continues to receive a small share of positive statements on the economy, most of his coverage on this issue is neutral. It is McCain’s sharp negatives, at over 50 per cent, that continue to give him a strong advantage on the issue.
ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox News coverage, 8/18 - 9/11/2008
Basis: all statements by or on Obama or McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and FOX evening news programs 8/18- 9/11/2008
Fox sees a different economic picture
While it’s sense of positive news has been the same, over the past year Fox News has consistently reported a less negative economic picture than the three networks. This can also be correlated to the way the various networks cover the candidates.
The economy in the media: Fox vs. ABC, CBS and NBC
Tone of coverage 10/2007-09/2008
Basis: 2,364 / 694 reports
McCain leads most strongly on Fox
While McCain has held an edge in all media in this period thanks to momentum from the convention and the nomination of Palin, it’s on Fox news, which has been least concerned about the economy, where he maintains the most significant advantage.
9/1 - 9/11/2008: tone of coverage by media outlets
Basis: all statements by or on Obama and McCain in ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox evening news programs 9/1 - 9/11/2008
To read the full Media Tenor election report in PDF format click here.
For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns, but also for International politics as well,” Schatz explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.
For further information visit: MediaTenor.com
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