After his sweep of the Potomac primaries Barack Obama seemed to be on the road to nomination. But Media Tenor’s research shows that he might lose momentum as current data show. “Senator Obama is still better rated in network news than Senator Clinton is – but ‘Obamania’ seems to be over,” says Roland Schatz, President of Media Tenor International. Media Tenor has developed its ‘Complementary trend’ to compare media ratings of the candidates directly, showing who is ahead in TV coverage.
“While Gallup’s tracking poll has shown Clinton well ahead in national polls on Super Tuesday, Media Tenor’s ‘Complementary Trend’ clearly indicates an advantage for Obama,” Schatz explains. But negative reporting on the Clinton campaign had not lead to an ongoing push for Obama.
“It’s not unusual that media coverage turns to be more critical as soon as the journalists have recognized a clear frontrunner,” Schatz explains. Obama has a clear advantage in horse race statement. But journalists covered doubts about his platform as being not substantial. Analyzing the current coverage of the Republican race leads to a similar result: John McCain emerged as the clear frontrunner after the Potomac primaries.
Analysis shows: Obama might lose momentum
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 1/25 – 2/14/2008: tone of coverage by days
Media Tenor’s “Complementary Trend” compares TV coverage of Obama and Clinton. On Super Tuesday it shows Obama ahead of Clinton, while Clinton was leading in Gallup’s tracking poll. This week Obama’s momentum in TV coverage decreases.
Basis: all statements by or on Obama and Clinton on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 1/25 – 2/14/2008
Obama’s still ahead, but doubts are back
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 1/1 – 2/14/2008*: tone of coverage by weeks
Positive coverage of Obama from the beginning of this week makes the total balance positive. But the share of negative statements on Obama is slightly increasing, general criticism of his platform.
Basis: all statements by or on Clinton and Obama on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 1/1 – 2/14/2008 (*individual newscasts missing)
Doubts about Obama‘s platform
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 2/4 – 2/14/2008: tone of coverage by topics
It’s not unusual that media coverage turns to be more critical as soon as the journalists have recognized a clear frontrunner. Obama has a clear advantage in horse race statements. Journalists still covered concerns that his platform is not substantial.
Basis: all statements by or on Clinton and Obama on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 2/4 – 2/14/2008 (* low database)
Two weeks analysis: Attacks on McCain’s platform
ABC, NBC and CBS candidate coverage, 2/4 – 2/14/2008: tone of coverage by topics
Especially campaign and horse race remarks led to a positive tone in McCain coverage, as the two weeks analysis shows. As the news covered Democratic fire at his platform, one out of four statements was negative.
Basis: all statements by or on McCain and Huckabee on ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs 2/4 – 2/14/2008 (* low database)
We will make the full report available in PDF format soon.
For the third time, International Media analysis company Media Tenor is offering a detailed analysis of the U.S. presidential campaign. TV news coverage of the leading Presidential contenders is scrutinized at a detailed level. “The methodology was developed 15 years ago and has been successfully used not only to analyze the 2000 and 2004 U.S. Presidential campaigns but also for International politics as well,” Schatz explains. Media Tenor’s Presidential Campaign Watch focuses not only on Candidate standings, but also on topics and sources, while adding on an international perspective. Results of Media Tenor studies will be regularly published on MediaChannel.org.
For further information visit: MediaTenor.com
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