2012

December 29, 2007 at 21:24:27 2012 by Dr. Mike Page 1 of 2 page(s) http://www.opednews.com

2012

2012 is significant in the popular imagination mainly because of the Mayan prediction that the world as we’ve know it will come to an end on December 21st of that year. Beyond this it appears from the perspective of the present as being a year in which “things which can’t go on forever” such as ever increasing consumerism, agricultural expansion, ever increasing consumption of energy resources, and so on, abruptly stop going on forever. It appears to be about the right time for the effects of global warming and planetary climate change to become universally undeniable. Alas by this year it will also be too late to stop the accelerating positive feedback loops which will intensify the changes to our biosphere. Put succinctly, 2012 appears to be a pretty good candidate for being the year that the s#*t hits the fan, the year that everything changed and so on.

My friend, political activist and writer, Marie D. Jones recently asked me to contribute a short essay for her forthcoming book entitled 2013: The End of Days or a New Beginning: Envisioning the World After the Events of 2012.

Marie wrote: “.…I would like to ask for your contribution to this book in the form of a brief essay describing what you, personally, think the year 2012 will bring, and what the world may look like in terms of changes you believe may be coming. This essay can be anywhere from one to five paragraphs in length….”

My contribution to her book appears just below:

2012 as I see it

By Michael P Byron

2012 will be a year of fundamental transformation due to the convergence of several factors, all being human-caused. As Shakespeare had Cassius say to Brutus in his play Julius Caesar: “The fault dear Brutus is not in our stars but in ourselves...”

The following trends will culminate in the epochal year 2012: Worldwide production of oil will certainly have peaked. Since our planetary civilization runs on oil, desperate measures will be taken by powerful nations to ensure that the wheels keep turning. Wars and rumors of wars will fill the news headlines. Crash programs to produce energy using coal and nuclear power will be hastily implemented without environmental safeguards.

Global climate change will have become both undeniable and irreversible in this fateful year. Due to the peaking of oil production, coal will be increasingly ripped from the ground and burned, thus releasing more carbon dioxide more rapidly into our planet’s increasingly unstable atmosphere. Flood, fire, drought, rising seas, crop failure, disease, and insect pestilence will be the result. Due to all of the above factors, the global economy will contract dramatically. Recession and then depression will ensue. Governments will fall as currencies plummet in value.

As chaotic and disastrous as all of this will be, it will also be a unique opportunity to reform ourselves, our values, and our civilization. With profound crisis comes great opportunity. As our present civilizational structures disintegrate, we can transform and reintegrate ourselves from desire for short-term gain at the expense of others and the planetary biosphere, to a just, humane and environmentally rational civilization which can endure for ages to come. 2012 will be the year that we act decisively to bring about this fundamental renewal of civilization.

All of this raises a deeper question. How did Mayan Indians living many centuries ago manage to identify this epochal year? Or did they?

As far as the astronomical significance of the prophecy is concerned, December 21, 2012 is the date on which our solar system crosses the plane of the galactic equator. The Maya were world-class astronomers. It is perhaps not surprising that such a rare event as this should be interpreted as being an indicator of momentous events. A celestial event of such rarity and significance ought to correspond with an analogous terrestrial event—such as the end of the world as we’ve known it. So there is nothing surprising about the Maya choosing this date for such a prophecy.

Yet the Maya also predicted that in what we know of as the year 1519, Quetzalcoatl, a light-skinned, bearded person, would return, and that his return would mark the end of Maya civilization. Amazingly, in 1519, on his way to invading México, Hernan Cortés a light-skinned, bearded man, did indeed land in the Maya heartland in the Yucatan peninsula of modern day México, exactly when and where Quetzalcoatl was expected to arrive. And the arrival of Cortés did indeed bring about the subsequent destruction of what remained of the Maya civilization.

If this is a coincidence, it is certainly an amazing one! The probability of two such random coincidences panning out in reality would appear to be astronomical.

So what are we to make of the 2012 Maya prophecy? Will it prove, in hindsight, to have been as prescient as the one about the return of Quetzalcoatl? If so, how can such a thing as foretelling the future exist?

1 | 2

MichaelPByron.com

Michael P. Byron is the author of "Infinity's Rainbow: The Politics of Energy, Climate and Globalization" which describes the relationships between peak oil, extreme climate, globalization, political corruption, and religious fanaticism. His new book will be "The Path Through Infinity's Rainbow" and will be about what we need to do about those problems.

Byron has a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Irvine. He teaches all aspects of Political Science and Political Economy in local colleges in the San Diego area. He was the Democratic Party’s candidate for United States Congress in California’s 49th Congressional District in 2004. In 2002, he ran as a write-in candidate upon discovering that the Republican incumbent, Darrell Issa, had no major-party challenger.

Mike lives in Oceanside, CA with his wife, Ramona Byron. Both are Navy veterans.

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"NINETY MINUTES THAT CHANGED THE WORLD"

December 29, 2007 at 21:43:06 "NINETY MINUTES THAT CHANGED THE WORLD" by James Strait Page 1 of 1 page(s) http://www.opednews.com

“Ninety Minutes that Changed the World”

The day after Christmas brought a repeat celebration on the nationally recognized voting integrity broadcast, Voice of the Voters. Airing on Philadelphia’s Renaissance Radio Station, WNJC1360 AM, and on the web WWWWNJC1360DOTCOM, guest host Lori Rosilowsky utilized the first half of the hour long program to play Christmas music that was as popular during the American Revolution as it is today. Poetically, we learn during the broadcast that the staying power of the celebratory music parallels that of America’s democracy.

But Voice of the Voters exists because just as music evolves while riding highs and lows of popularity and subjective quality, so also does the democratic process. The analogy holds true but the crucial difference between musical change and that found within a living democracy, is that, the only damage done when the music is “common” is that sales suffer, as do the ears of the listeners (rap), however with American democracy the effects of change can be life altering for hundreds of millions of citizens, and future altering for this planet.

Democracy is an paradox of strength and fragility. It is as strong as impervium (sic) when left unmolested but is susceptible to erosion when manipulated by powers motivated by malice or operating with ignorance. Either process can bring long term tragedy, thus, the wise folk that are those members of the grassroots voting integrity movement have joined as a galvanized force whose sole purpose is to protect and sustain the original intent of American Democracy.

On the broadcast of December 26, Lori Rosilowsky opened the musical aspect of the show with an outline of the history of many Christmas songs, explaining that there popularity has survived the test of time. Her first choice to play on air was my all time favorite, “O’ Holy Night”. Good choice Lori! She and fellow musical artist Courtney Colletti produced the combined sounds of an angelic duo. Lori also shared the trivia that this wonderful piece of music was also the first music to air on broadcast radio just over a century ago, in 1906! The next song was “Carol of The Bells”, a Ukrainian standard that serves as a celebration of Christmas everywhere except the Ukrain; there it is a celebration of New Years.

Lori closed the musical portion of the broadcast with her rendition of “My Grown Up Christmas List”, which can be heard on the Voice of the Voters website as a pod cast. Lori’s talent shines as both an instrumentalist and vocalist. Check it out at WWW.VOICEOFTHEVOTERSDOTCOM.

Just prior to turning the remainder of the broadcast over to VOV host, Mary Ann Gould, Ms. Rosilowsky encouraged listeners, activists, and philanthropists to contribute generously by sending tax deductible donations to P.O Box 536, Doylestown, PA 18901.

At this point the program shifted gears and Mary Ann Gould took the helm to steer the broadcast to that point in time where this nations first President faced a terrible moment. It was Christmas day 1776, and the Continental Army had only one week left in there commitment. January 1, 1777 would find the struggling American potential without a recognized military force. General George Washington was pressured as few commanders have ever been, and his decision and the performance of his tortured army are the reasons that I am here to write this article and the reader free to read such.

On the broadcast, General Washington was portrayed by Bucks County Pennsylvania resident thespian, Bob Gerenser. His portrayals of Washington have entertained many thousands of Delaware Valley residents with his solo recitals and the reenactments of the famous Christmas Crossing of the Colonial Army at Washington’s Crossing State Park, located in beautiful Bucks County Pennsylvania.

When Mr. Gerenser was in character, Mary Ann had to prompt and prod the General to relate the story of the attack on Trenton, as recalling that terrible decision to attack with diminished forces under extremely difficult weather circumstance revealed an obvious emotional pain. It was with great difficulty that he was able to make the decision and he credits his strength to the men of the all volunteer Continental Army. During that cold, bitter, nor’easter with many of his troops poorly clothed and sparsely provisioned he drew from the faces of his troops. Washington’s decision to attack Trenton was bold and certainly unexpected to the British campaigns leading commander General Cornwallis, who was on Long Island ready to return to England thinking that he and his army had been victorious.

General Washington’s plan of attack was three pronged with multiple crossings of the frigid Delaware River to take place to the south of Trenton at Bristol, directly across from Trenton at Morrisville, and to the north at what is now Washington’s Crossing. The southern crossing failed because of the extreme weather, as did the attempt to cross at Morrisville. The crossing under General Washington’s command was accomplished but ran late also because of the challenge of the severe weather. Nonetheless, his suffering army made their way south towards Trenton and the encamped Hessian mercenaries. The combination of the severe weather and the celebrating that took place within the Hessian ranks allowed Washington’s army to arrive in an unexpected fashion, the result was a rapid ninety minute victory at Trenton for the Continental Army, and turned the tide of the Revolution.

The price to the American volunteers was two soldiers frozen to death, and two fatalities due to gunshot wounds. Washington was to say that those men who marched under the worst of conditions, with feel bleeding and wrapped in cloth that left bloody foot prints in the snow, were equally heroic to those who fell in hostilities.

The significance of the Battle of Trenton cannot be understated, in fact, upon his ultimate surrender of the British forces at Yorktown, Cornwallis offered a toast to General Washington; “Excellency, when history recounts the tails of this glorious epic, your brightest laurels will not be gathered from the Chesapeake, but from the banks of the Delaware”. Cornwallis recognized that Washington’s terrible decision leading to the bloody footprints in the snow and the victory at Trenton, represented a genuine turning point in the war. Washington put it better when he noted that “This ragtag and bobtail army that stood in the snow and yanked the tail of the British Lion, then delivered three stunning victories in the ten days between December 25th, 1776 and January 4th 1777, in the middle of winter, is truly extraordinary”.

Yes, extraordinary it was. So much so that when attempting to wrap my modern mind around the massive sacrifice by so many, that it becomes an impossible task. However, of this I am certain, those of us here today need to take a very serious lesson from that seeming providential historical moment two hundred and thirty three Christmas‘ past. In the voting integrity movement, the date is now December 22nd, our ragtag and bobtail grassroots army have gathered ready to yank the tail of the convoluted interests that seek to undermine democracy. We all face an equally important challenge to defend and preserve the future of democracy as originally envisioned by our founding fathers. Do we have the grit to leave our bloodied foot prints in the sands of our political time?

The answer to that question has been provided to me over that last year with my many interactions with the voting integrity grassroots soldiers that fight the good fight, against overwhelming odds, literally every moment of everyday…the answer is an unequivocal YES!

At some point in time I fully expect the voting integrity movement to have its victory at Trenton and who knows, maybe the pivotal moment will last no longer than ninety minutes.

www.straittalks.com

Host of "Speak Out America-Live"-Wednesdays 7-8PM Eastern & "Straittalks"-Thursdays 8-9PM Eastern, airing on WNJC1360 in the Philadelphia Pennsylvania radio market(live internet stream www.wnjc1360.com); Occassional guest/co-host of Voice of the Voters. Most importantly, a concerned and involved American.

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The Year In Review, And 2008 Will Be Worse

by William Cormier Page 1 of 3 page(s) http://www.opednews.com

I’d like to be the harbinger of good news, and there is some, but all-in-all, 2007 was a disaster for Democrats and the country at large - Bush and Cheney are still at the helm of power and Congress remains cowed and ineffective. There have been instances of courage, and you have to admire Chris Dodd for sticking to his guns and coming off the campaign trail to effectively forestall granting the telecoms, and Bush by means of proxy, immunity for illegally helping the government to wiretap innocent Americans and help the Bush administration spy on America.

Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul, each in different ways, have rocked the conventional political wisdom in our country, and instead of being “politically correct”, each in his own style have been honest with the country and stood-up for our constitutional values and the rule of law - proving the population is desperate for the truth, and the Mainstream News Media has been exposed to be cowardly and complicit with the Bush administration and corporatism (a polite word for fascism.); true investigative reporting is almost dead - and the Washington Post ( The Washington Compost would be a more befitting title), once a bellwether for breaking news that actually affected our lives and brought-down a President is now a government mouthpiece and their rank cowardice and fear and/or collusion with this administration will never be forgiven by the American public.

The New York Times (New York Crimes…) has on occasion presented us with some scathing editorials, some good, others mediocre at best, yet they still stand in humiliation for not breaking the scandal about US Wiretapping before the 2004 Presidential elections, and no matter how you parse it, the NY Times is partially responsible for Bush maintaining power and wrecking havoc on our economy - with Bush and Cheney wiping their butt’s with the United States Constitution. A President and Vice-President remain in power who make Nixon seem like a choir-boy; Watergate doesn’t compare with the least of their crimes, however that was before our media and Congress became compromised by what Ron Paul refers to as “soft fascism.”

Congressman Robert Wexler has to be commended on his efforts to bring the Cheney Impeachment issue back into the news, and even for a United States Congressman, he faced a complicit and cowardly MSM who refused to publish his Op-Ed’s, and finally, the Miami Herald broke the silence, and many others followed suit - an action which could be the beginning of the MSM coming to the realization that Americans want the truth - and their refusal to provide us with real news is affecting their bottom-lines; it used to be that car salesmen and attorneys were ranked at the bottom of the list for their “trust factor”, but now that “soft fascism” is beginning to dominate America, the bulk of the MSM are viewed as cowards and liars - and millions view almost anything they publish with a wary eye, wondering whether it’s truth or propaganda, or a clever assimilation for the two in an attempt to lend credibility to their lies! Congressman Wexler and the Miami Herald should both be commended on their honesty LINK, although admittedly, it took some time before the Miami Herald finally published the story - but late is better than never, and I hope that everyone writes to the Editor and strongly thanks them for having the courage to defy the Bush administration. We must recognize and laud those who have the courage to defy an administration that uses fear and intimidation as weapons in their plans to dismantle the constitution, and as others see the public holding those in high esteem that value liberty over fascism - the beginning of the end actually impacts those who are enemies of our way of life.

There is a War on Christianity, but the combatants are Christians themselves, and true Christianity is starting to win against the radicals that have been attempting to hijack Christianity and use it for their own political and financial gain. You won’t necessarily hear it on the American MSM, however an article on the BBC illustrates how in Republican Kansas, things are beginning to change, and again, we must praise those who are attempting to bring back the true beliefs of Christianity:

Bible bashing dying out in Kansas

By Justin Webb

BBC News, Washington

There is an American expression for something that is utterly obvious but not, for some reason, noticed.

“Hiding in plain sight”, the Americans call it, and the expression came to my mind as I sat in Kansas City airport waiting for an ice storm to pass.

Hiding in plain sight in this state is a revolution in American Christendom, a change of heart that could see American Protestant churches looking increasingly like their European equivalents. MUCH MORE

On the flip-side of that coin is a Presidency that refuses to honor the constitutional principals of separation of church and state, and America’s servicemen are being subjected to religious indoctrination in our armed services - a violation of our law and a slap in the face of those who fought and died so we in America would be a nation that respected the religious beliefs of all, not those chosen by a President that has a moral compass which is nonexistent and/or obscured by power and greed:

Evangelist Video Shot at Air Force Academy Exposed

Anna Schecter Reports:

A video made by a Christian ministry group shows Air Force Academy cadets being pressured to become “government paid missionaries when they leave” the academy, according to the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF), which released the video this week.

MRFF president Mikey Weinstein says the video is unconstitutional and an outrage.

“This is absolutely out of control. You cannot engage the U.S. government to propel your religion,” said Weinstein. MORE

To the best of my knowledge and belief, there’s still a Press Blackout on S 1959, the Thought Crime Prevention Bill; this is an issue the American public is demanding answers to, and those of you who have been calling Congress, emailing them, and contacting the MSM caused the House of Representatives to issue a statement of “clarification” that clarified nothing, and was an example of double-speak and governmental spin, but the report itself was not discussed on the MSM, and the majority of our population are still unaware this Bill even exists! It is this writer’s belief that S 1959 is a Bill we cannot forget, and we need to keep demanding answers and force it into the Presidential debates - Republican and Democratic alike so the public can become aware of this assault on our constitution.

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http://justanothercoverup.com/

I am nothing more than a patriotic American that is doing whatever I can to further the cause of democracy, the rule of law, and am absolutely outraged on how the Bush administration is defying our Congress, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights! Footnote: I write in a style that I believe is appropriate in today’s world where we can’t trust the Mainstream News Media, and rather than concentrating on one article alone, which may or may not receive the exposure and emphasis it should, I prefer to meld several relevant stories together, that each taken alone may not expose the entire situation, but when taken-in as a whole, tend to give the reader a better understanding of the subject. One article or story alone does not represent the “Big Picture” - but when several are effectively tied-together it often reveals a trend or broader view of the subject matter that is important to completely understand any given situation. http://justanothercoverup.com/

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2007 a Year of Weather Records in US

By Seth Borenstein
The Associated Press

Saturday 29 December 2007

Washington - When the calendar turned to 2007, the heat went on and the weather just got weirder.

January was the warmest first month on record worldwide - 1.53 degrees above normal. It was the first time since record-keeping began in 1880 that the globe's average temperature has been so far above the norm for any month of the year.

And as 2007 drew to a close, it was also shaping up to be the hottest year on record in the Northern Hemisphere.

U.S. weather stations broke or tied 263 all-time high temperature records, according to an Associated Press analysis of U.S. weather data. England had the warmest April in 348 years of record-keeping there, shattering the record set in 1865 by more than 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit.

It wasn't just the temperature. There were other oddball weather events. A tornado struck New York City in August, inspiring the tabloid headline: "This ain't Kansas!"

In the Middle East, an equally rare cyclone spun up in June, hitting Oman and Iran. Major U.S. lakes shrank; Atlanta had to worry about its drinking water supply. South Africa got its first significant snowfall in 25 years. And on Reunion Island, 400 miles east of Africa, nearly 155 inches of rain fell in three days - a world record for the most rain in 72 hours.

Individual weather extremes can't be attributed to global warming, scientists always say. However, "it's the run of them and the different locations" that have the mark of man-made climate change, said top European climate expert Phil Jones, director of the climate research unit at the University of East Anglia in England.

Worst of all - at least according to climate scientists - the Arctic, which serves as the world's refrigerator, dramatically warmed in 2007, shattering records for the amount of melting ice.

2007 seemed to be the year that climate change shook the thermometers, and those who warned that it was beginning to happen were suddenly honored. Former Vice President Al Gore's documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" won an Oscar and he shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international group of thousands of scientists. The climate panel, organized by the United Nations, released four major reports in 2007 saying man-made global warming was incontrovertible and an urgent threat to millions of lives.

Through the first 10 months, it was the hottest year recorded on land and the third hottest when ocean temperatures are included.

Smashing records was common, especially in August. At U.S. weather stations, more than 8,000 new heat records were set or tied for specific August dates.

More remarkably that same month, more than 100 all-time temperature records were tied or broken - regardless of the date - either for the highest reading or the warmest low temperature at night. By comparison only 14 all-time low temperatures were set or tied all year long, as of early December, according to records kept by the National Climatic Data Center.

For example, on Aug. 10, the town of Portland, Tenn., reached 102 degrees, tying a record for the hottest it ever had been. On Aug. 16, it hit 103 and Portland had a new all-time record. But that record was broken again the next day when the mercury reached 105.

Daily triple-digit temperatures took a toll on everybody, public safety director George West recalled. The state had 15 heat-related deaths in August.

Portland was far from alone. In Idaho, Chilly Barton Flat wasn't living up to its name. The weather station in central Idaho tied an all-time high of 100 on July 26, Aug. 7, 14 and 19. During 2007, weather stations in 35 states, from Washington to Florida, set or tied all-time heat records in 2007.

Across Europe this past summer, extreme heat waves killed dozens of people.

And it wasn't just the heat. It was the rain. There was either too little or too much.

More than 60 percent of the United States was either abnormally dry or suffering from drought at one point in August. In November, Atlanta's main water source, Lake Lanier, shrank to an all-time low. Lake Okeechobee, crucial to south Florida, hit its lowest level in recorded history in May, exposing muck and debris not seen for decades. Lake Superior, the biggest and deepest of the Great Lakes, dropped to its lowest August and September levels in history.

Los Angeles hit its driest year on record. Lakes fed by the Colorado River and which help supply water for more than 20 million Westerners, were only half full.

Australia, already a dry continent, suffered its worst drought in a century, making global warming an election issue. On the other extreme, record rains fell in China, England and Wales.

Minnesota got the worst of everything: a devastating June and July drought followed by record August rainfall. In one March day, Southern California got torrential downpours, hail, snow and fierce winds. Then in the fall came devastating fires driven by Santa Ana winds.

And yet none of those events worried scientists as much as what was going on in the Arctic in the summer. Sea ice melted not just to record levels, but far beyond the previous melt record. The Northwest Passage was the most navigable it had been in modern times. Russia planted a flag on the seabed under the North Pole, claiming sovereignty.

The ice sheets that cover a portion of Greenland retreated to an all-time low and permafrost in Alaska warmed to record levels.

Meteorologists have chronicled strange weather years for more than a decade, but nothing like 2007. It was such an extreme weather year that the World Meteorological Organization put out a news release chronicling all the records and unusual developments. That was in August with more than 145 sizzling days to go.

Get used to it, scientists said. As man-made climate change continues, the world will experience more extreme weather, bursts of heat, torrential rain and prolonged drought, they said.

"We're having an increasing trend of odd years," said Michael MacCracken, a former top federal climate scientist, now chief scientist at the Climate Institute in Washington. "Pretty soon odd years are going to become the norm."

---

On the Web:

US National Climatic Data Center's searchable records web site:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/records/

US National Climatic Data Center on August heat wave:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/aug/aug-heat-event.php

World Meteorological Organization on 2007 weather extremes:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_791_e.html

The record for shrinking sea ice:
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html

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Kenyans Riot as Vote Count Drags On

By Nicholas Soi and Robyn Dixon
The Los Angeles Times

Saturday 29 December 2007

Nairobi, Kenya - Ethnic riots exploded across Kenya today as the official vote count in the country's presidential election dragged on, prompting new accusations of fraud.

Opposition supporters, mainly from the Luo tribe, waved machetes, looted businesses and set fire to shops and houses belonging to Kikuyus, the tribe associated with Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki.

Kiosks along the road were burning in the Kibera slum area, stronghold of the opposition presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, as furious crowds of young men rioted and chanted anti-Kikuyu slogans.

With no official result, the opposition Orange Democratic Movement declared its leader, Raila Odinga, the winner and called on Kibaki to concede defeat in order to halt the violence in many areas.

"In view of the growing anxiety and restlessness in the country over the extended delay ... we now call upon the outgoing president to acknowledge and respect the will of the Kenyan people and concede defeat," said Musalia Mudavadi, the ODM candidate for vice president.

Tensions rose when Kibaki began to gain on Odinga's lead as Friday's count dragged on, fueling opposition suspicions that the vote was being rigged.

If Kibaki loses, it will be the first time an incumbent president has been voted out in Kenya, and one of only a few cases in sub-Saharan Africa.

Tempers flared at the Electoral Commission of Kenya briefings as party agents demanded to know why the count was taking so long. The fact local TV stations were releasing figures much faster than the commission fueled the anger.

Both Kibaki's Party of National Unity and the ODM called on the commission to speed its count, panel chief Samuel Kivuitu said. When officials called outlying provinces to find out when figures would be available, no one answered the phones.

The latest official figures had Odinga ahead with 3.73 million votes, or 49%, and Kibaki with 3.42 million votes, or 45%, and 159 of the 210 constituencies counted.

There was no indication when a final tally would be available.

Fourteen million in this nation of 37 million were eligible to vote. The turnout was reported at 70%, the highest since the reintroduction of multiparty elections 15 years ago.

The results of parliamentary elections, also run Thursday, were known, with 16 ministers in Kibaki's Cabinet losing their seats.

The opposition, which was narrowly ahead in opinion polls going into the election, accused the government on election eve of planning to rig the voting, but Kibaki strongly denied the claims.

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Lacking Lawyers, Justice Is Denied

By Daniel Costello
The Los Angeles Times

Saturday 29 December 2007

Attorneys often avoid medical malpractice suits because California limits "pain and suffering" awards to $250,000.

Dave Stewart's 72-year-old mother went to Stanford University Medical Center for double knee-replacement surgery in April. Four days later, she was dead.

To Stewart, an anesthesiologist, it seemed a classic case of medical malpractice. After the operation, his mother developed sharp abdominal pain that she described as "10 on a scale of 1 to 10," according to her medical records.

The hospital failed to diagnose the cause of her pain and continued to treat her with narcotics. Her vital signs became unstable and she was moved to the intensive care unit, but she died of complications from an untreated bowel obstruction. State regulators cited the hospital in the case this fall.

Stewart and his two sisters decided to sue, and they approached two dozen lawyers. One after another declined to take the case, always for the same reason: It wasn't worth the money.

In 1975, California enacted legislation capping malpractice payments after an outcry from doctors and insurers that oversized awards and skyrocketing insurance rates were driving physicians out of the state.

The law limited the amount of money for "pain and suffering" - usually the physical and emotional stress caused from an injury - to $250,000. There is no limit on what patients can collect for loss of future wages or other expenses.

Over the years, it has been easy to quantify the effects of the law, known as the Medical Injury Compensation Reform Act, or MICRA. In the years since the law was enacted, malpractice premiums in California have risen by just a third of the national average, and doctors say the law now helps attract physicians to the state. Proponents also say it discourages frivolous lawsuits.

Thirty states have enacted similar legislation. Two Republican presidential candidates - Mitt Romney and Rudolph W. Giuliani - have recently endorsed the approach as a possible national model.

It's been harder to tally the law's costs. Critics say it is increasingly preventing victims and their families from getting their day in court, especially low-income workers, children and the elderly. Their reasoning: The cap on pain and suffering has never been raised nor tied to inflation.

Meanwhile, the costs of putting on trials are often paid by attorneys and continue to rise each year. That means those who rely mainly on pain and suffering awards - typically people who didn't make much money at the time of their injury - are increasingly unattractive to lawyers.

Several states have set their malpractice caps considerably higher than California's because of worries that they affected poorer patients the most. Some state courts have begun to examine the fairness of their malpractice laws, especially those not tied to inflation. California lawmakers have rarely reconsidered the state's malpractice legislation.

Yet a Times analysis of state court records, physician payment data and insurer financial records suggests that the cap is increasingly preventing families such as the Stewarts from getting their day in court.

Among the findings:

• Court malpractice filings have fallen in eight of the 10 most populous counties in California that track such information. In Los Angeles, they're down 48% since 2001 to their lowest per-capita level in nearly four decades. In Orange County, they fell 29% over the same period
  
  
• At Kaiser Permanente, where members must resolve malpractice claims in arbitration rather than court, claims have fallen almost 20% since 2001.
  
  
• The number of payments to victims and their families across the state was down 24% since 1991, according to a review of a federal government database of nearly half a million claims. Nationally, the decline over the same period was 10%.
  
  
• The malpractice earnings of California insurers has far outpaced national averages in recent years. According to financial reports, insurers in the state have paid out just 39 cents of every premium dollar since 1991. The national average was 63 cents.

Proponents of the law attribute the state's recent decline in malpractice lawsuits to several reasons unrelated to its award cap, including a slight drop in overall personal injury cases nationwide and a possible decrease in medical errors in recent years.

Some states have seen larger per-capita declines in malpractice cases than California, after they enacted caps on medical malpractice awards.

A spokesman for Kaiser Permanente said its drop in malpractice filings was the result of a company program begun five years ago in which doctors apologized to patients for errors rather than wait to fight the accusations in court.

Some malpractice victims and their families say the benefits of the law have swung too far in favor of doctors. Without accountability, some ask, what will keep physicians from making careless mistakes?

Craig Backer of Caliente, near Bakersfield, suffered headaches for five years and eventually lost hearing in his left ear. Although the former Marine visited a Veterans Affairs hospital half a dozen times, doctors told him his condition was temporary and never performed advanced screening tests, according to his family.

Last spring, Backer began having problems with his vision and returned for a battery of exams. Doctors discovered that he had a large brain tumor and scheduled surgery days later. It was successful, but Backer remains in the hospital and can't talk. He is also learning how to swallow again, and the left side of his face droops. Doctors say they don't know if he will improve.

His wife, Jeriah, wants to sue but the case is subject to California's malpractice cap. Six lawyers have turned her down. One told her that because her husband didn't earn a large income as a mechanic, the case wasn't feasible. "We're living a nightmare," she said.

Linda Fermoyle Rice, one of the state's best-known malpractice lawyers, says the law often leads to difficult trade-offs.

"It has had the effect of making an infant who is severely injured more valuable than those who don't make it, since families of children who die are limited to the cap," said Rice, who is based in Woodland Hills. "It's sad to say, but most attorneys I know won't take a dead-baby case."

A 2003 Rand Corp. report found that the law has reduced jury awards by 30%, and that the savings have come largely at the expense of severely injured or impaired patients.

On average, California juries (which are rarely informed of the cap during trials) awarded $800,000 in malpractice death cases from 1995 to 1999, but the amounts were later reduced to $250,000 under the law. This suggests that medical malpractice victims and their families could be reaping much larger payouts than the law allows. But proponents of MICRA say raising the cap could harm patients.

"Raising the MICRA cap would significantly increase healthcare costs, limiting patient access to doctors, hospitals and clinics throughout California," said Lisa Maas, executive director of Californians Allied for Patient Protection, a trade group. "MICRA protects patient access to healthcare."

San Diego obstetrician Philip Diamond is skeptical that the law is keeping patients from obtaining malpractice lawyers. But he acknowledged that limits on payouts do lead to trade-offs.

"If we raise the cap, where does that money come from?" he asked. "Any increase means a drop in access."

The link between malpractice payouts and increases in doctors' insurance premiums, though, remains unclear.

One of the largest studies done on the topic - by Dartmouth College researchers in 2003 - concluded that malpractice payments had risen in line with medical care costs, whereas doctors' insurance premiums grew far faster - by double-digit percentages annually for some specialties.

To some, that suggests that recent malpractice premium increases may have had more to do with insurers' business models and financial investments - including documented losses in their investment portfolios in recent years - than with their core businesses.

Nationally, the rise in malpractice premiums has slowed in recent years.

"Just 16.2% of insurers raised their malpractice premiums in 2007 compared to 77.3% in 2003," said the Medical Liability Monitor, a newsletter based in Chicago.

Douglas Heller, executive director of the Santa Monica-based Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights, says the 1975 liability caps aren't the reason that doctors' insurance premiums have been relatively low in California. He says the reason is that, unlike other states, insurance is tightly regulated here. In a 1988 statewide vote, Proposition 103 rolled back all casualty insurance rates by 20% and required the approval of the state insurance commissioner for any rate increase.

Malpractice rates rose sixfold between 1975 and 1988 despite the state's awards cap, Heller said, but have held roughly steady since Proposition 103's passage.

Stewart, of San Diego, said he had long been a MICRA advocate, believing it was in the best interest of doctors and patients. Not anymore.

After he and his family got over the initial shock of losing their mother, they wanted justice. Most attorneys turned them down over the phone, although three agreed to meet in person. Last summer, the entire family and their 80-year-old father made the trip to San Francisco and Oakland for meetings.

One lawyer said he would take the case only if the family paid the expected $50,000 in trial costs upfront.

San Francisco lawyer Brad Corsiglia at first seemed interested but later sent a letter dated July 11, 2007, that read: "As you can understand, with a cap of $250,000, we are limited in the type of case we can take on a contingency fee basis to only those cases that involve catastrophic economic losses."

"In 1975 you could buy a house for that money, and today what does it get you?" asked Stewart, whose parents would have celebrated their 54th anniversary last month. "Every year MICRA stays the same is another year that people who have been wronged will be denied the same justice."

Stanford Medical Center declined to comment on the case.

Some state courts have struck down malpractice caps that didn't rise over time. Last month, an Illinois circuit court judge ruled unconstitutional a 2005 state law that caps noneconomic damages in medical liability cases. The case is on appeal.

In 2006, a Louisiana appeals court ruled that its state malpractice cap, established in 1975, did not adequately compensate patients and needed to be raised to $1.6 million. The ruling was overturned this year by the state's Supreme Court.

Some families who succeed at trial in California are often surprised at how little money they see in the end.

Becky Dessenberger's 2-year-old son, Jacob, died at Children's Hospital in Oakland in 2004 after surgery to repair a foot. Her son, who was suffering from bronchitis, was given a high dose of pain medication though the drug is known to cause slower breathing. He died the next day.

In 2006 the family settled with the hospital, which acknowledged no wrongdoing, for just under the $250,000 cap. After deducting for trial costs and lawyer fees, Dessenberger, 36, of Suisun City, said the family received "a little over" $100,000.

Dessenberger said no money would help ease her grief, but the small amount felt to her and her family like a slap in the face.

"Because he was a baby, this is all he was worth," she said. "I think it is horrible. I don't think it's fair."

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Times staff writers Doug Smith and Sandra Poindexter contributed to this report.

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Millions in Earmarks Purchase Little of Use

By Robert O'Harrow Jr.
The Washington Post

Saturday 29 December 2007

The National Defense Center for Environmental Excellence opened its doors in 1991 with a $5 million earmark from a powerful lawmaker. Operating in Johnstown, Pa., the privately run center has received at least $671 million worth of federal contracts and earmarks since then to research and develop pollution-abatement technology and other systems for the Defense Department.

The center's researchers have examined scores of software systems and other gear, including groundwater monitoring equipment, gun cleaners and ultrasonic devices, according to its managers. They said the center had delivered nearly 500 technology products and tools to protect the environment, improve safety and cut Pentagon costs.

But a months-long examination by The Washington Post, including a review of documents and interviews with Pentagon officials, found that little of the center's work has been widely used or deployed by the Defense Department.

Only nine systems developed by the center since 2001 have been put into use at more than one installation, one standard auditors use for measuring the success of technology transfer, Army officials said. That includes such equipment as compost-monitoring technology, bullet-trap technology and hand-held computers for collecting information in the field about unexploded ordnance. Just one system made the leap from the center's labs to multiple locations in the 1990s, Pentagon auditors found.

Army officials responsible for overseeing the center, known as the NDCEE, acknowledged the shortcomings. In interviews and statements, officials said they are working hard to do a better job to identify Defense Department needs and translate the center's research into action.

"Merely showing that a technology works and is cost-effective, and placing the results in a report has not been sufficient," an Army statement said.

The environmental program illustrates the gaps in oversight that have often accompanied the government's surging use of private contractors. It also shows how politically connected programs can thrive over many years in the face of questions about performance and cost.

A key congressional supporter of the center is Rep. John P. Murtha (D-Pa.), chairman of the Appropriations Committee's defense subcommittee. Murtha arranged the center's original $5 million budget and used his sway to place it in his district.

Murtha also helped start Concurrent Technologies, the tax-exempt charity that manages the center. Established in an old high school in 1988, Concurrent has grown into a contracting powerhouse. Its annual revenue is now nearly $250 million, most of it from an eclectic array of Defense Department contracts.

Investigations by The Post this year have shown that in the last four years Concurrent has received $226 million in congressionally directed funding, known as earmarks, from Murtha and other lawmakers, including those who represent districts where Concurrent has opened offices.

Murtha declined through a spokesman to comment for this article.

Concurrent's relationship with the Pentagon has come under scrutiny by lawmakers and the Pentagon's inspector general since the publication of articles by The Post. The most recent inquiry began this month by Sen. Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, the ranking Republican on the Finance Committee, who wants to know why Concurrent is a tax-exempt charity.

"It's fair to ask whether this company is serving a legitimate charitable purpose, and whether the taxpayers are getting a fair return on their investment," Grassley said in a statement.

The Post review also found that lawmakers and Pentagon officials continued allocating hundreds of millions of dollars to the center in recent years, despite publicly available reports from auditors and others raising questions about its effectiveness.

Among the problems cited: Managers of the center sometimes duplicated the work of private industry, and the Defense Department was not doing enough to oversee the program or promote its research. A National Research Council committee convened to examine the center's approach to transferring technology said in a 2002 report that "this model has not been successfully demonstrated."

One year later, the Army awarded Concurrent a five-year contract worth up to $350 million to continue running the center.

Concurrent spokeswoman Mary Bevan said she had no comment about the center and referred a reporter to the Army. Bevan defended Concurrent's non-profit status, saying "we perform scientific research and development."

"We don't claim to be a charity," she said. "We're not the United Way."

Documents filed by Concurrent with the Internal Revenue Service show it is registered as a tax-exempt charitable organization.

"Something is very wrong here. Why is the government pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into a contractor whose work it isn't using?" said Danielle Brian, executive director of the Project on Government Oversight, a nonprofit watchdog group in the District that has examined defense spending over the years.

The NDCEE came about as a result of federal environmental legislation in 1990 that mandated wide-ranging pollution prevention efforts by the government.

In response, the Defense Department created pollution prevention programs and pledged to cut hazardous waste by half by the end of the 1990s. The center was to be a key player in those efforts.

With Murtha leading the way, Congress set aside the $5 million to start the center as a subsidiary of the nonprofit organization that would become Concurrent Technologies. The center set out to be "a national resource" for demonstrating and transferring environmental technologies to the Defense Department, other government agencies and industry, company documents show.

The center has no employees of its own, Army officials said. It is run by Concurrent, with oversight provided by at least two Army program officials. It does work with the Army, Air Force, Navy, federal and state agencies, universities and private companies, according to company documents. Booz Allen Hamilton, Parsons and Battelle Memorial Institute are members of its "contracting team," company documents show.

In the first 12 years after the center was formed, Concurrent did not have to compete for contracts. It received at least three sole-source contracts, one of them worth $150 million.

The money added up - and so did questions about the center.

Operating under Army oversight, the program received as much as $271 million in congressional appropriations and contract work from fiscal 1990 to fiscal 2000, according to Pentagon auditors.

Many technologies studied or developed by the center were demonstrated at the Johnstown facility. In some cases, the center made presentations at Defense facilities or promoted the technologies in reports or on the Web.

One technology that was demonstrated and transferred was an ultra high-pressure water jet system for cleaning aircraft engines, according to a 2001 report by the Pentagon inspector general's office. Auditors said the technology had the potential to save $8.7 million over 15 years. Pentagon auditors found that most military people working with the center were satisfied with its services.

But that apparent enthusiasm didn't prompt them to embrace the center's work very often.

Of the five dozen technologies demonstrated by the center in the 1990s, only 20 were put into use at Defense facilities, auditors said. Just one was used at multiple locations, auditors said.

The reasons for the failure included a lack of funding by the Defense Department, and the fact that in more than half the cases the technologies did not save money as promised. The inspector general's report said technologies were "not being effectively disseminated to many potential DoD customers."

Questions about the center's effectiveness prompted the Defense Department to ask the National Research Council to identify major barriers and remedies to the transfer of pollution-prevention technologies. The council's 2002 report took aim at the center's approach, saying it needed to do a better job reaching out to the Defense Department and "selecting and completing relevant projects with significant and quantifiable impacts."

Despite the criticism, spending on the center continued. It received at least $9.5 million in 2002 and $11.3 million in 2003, according to the Army. In 2003, Concurrent won its first competitive award to run the center. The contract was worth up to $350 million over five years and called on its researchers to find solutions for hazardous waste, groundwater pollution, nuclear waste, corrosion prevention and other problems, according to the statement of work. It was Concurrent's largest contract ever, contracting documents show.

Army officials defended the contract award, saying it was competitively bid and an important step in making the operation more effective.

"The all important first step in revitalizing the role of the NDCEE was to issue the new contract via a competitive process," the Army said in a statement. "Further, significant efforts were made to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of NDCEE."

The center has received $130 million under that contract, Army officials said. One success cited by Army officials is a system for helping Defense Department installations enter a federal workplace health and safety program. The center has also developed a plan for helping a Defense Department ammunition plant reduce contamination from the process of making explosives.

Tad Davis, the Army's deputy assistant secretary for the environment, safety and occupational health, declined to discuss the center's activity before he took on his job in October 2005. But he said the Army is doing a better job getting the center to focus on research that is germane to the Army and Defense Department.

"There's a certain amount of marketing that has to take place," Davis said. "It's not as easy as driving up to someone's installation and knocking on the door."

Davis said he sees the center's issues not as problems, but as challenges that can be overcome. "It's going to require effort," he said. "I think it's doable."

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